Anselmi, Cruz Azul and the importance of being prepared for any departure

Data from Wyscout. Photo from Récord.

There are many rumours surrounding Martín Anselmi’s future, and whilst nothing is final, it seems that Anselmi is heading for Porto.

Thought: It’s a mistake for a team to give away too much control over key decisions, like player signings, to a head coach. A coach could leave in any moment, and teams must be prepared for any possibility, and stick to their medium-to-long-term plans.

I believe there are cases of a lack of patience with head coaches, but thinking realistically, the majority of coaches aren’t going to last too long with a club, and will normally spend less time with a team players do. Remaining at a club for the long-term requires a rather specific performance level. If performances drop too low, the club will probably have to make a change, but if performances are very impressive, the coach is likely to receive attractive offers to leave the club. The reality is that most head coaches will take the opportunity to work in bigger tournaments/leagues and earn more money.

Therefore, smart clubs have to be prepared for any future possibility, with regularly updated lists of player and coaching options. Also, it’s important that they maintain control of key and expensive decisions, like player signings and sales, and new contracts.

Cruz Azul may have given away too much control over transfers, in and out of the club. The head coach can have a role in the process, but it isn’t efficient if a team only signs whoever the coach wants. The player will probably last longer in the club, and directors must have confidence that they will perform well with a different coach. Also, there’s a large cost involved if a club commits to bringing in the wants of a head coach, and new signings are normally given contracts that outlast the lifespan of a coach.

Besides, good coaches aren’t necessarily good scouts, and with the amount and variety of work that coaching staff are required to carry out, they may not have enough time to produce in-depth searches.

At times, a club needs to convince a head coach that they’ve found a better solution. There’s a good example from Ian Graham’s book, “How to win the Premier League”. Graham, who worked in analytics for Liverpool, showed clips of Mohamed Salah in order to convince Jürgen Klopp that he was a better winger than Julian Brandt.

A vision for how a team should function, with play style and culture the starting points for any decision

When searching for a new head coach, as long as a team has a clear vision, it’s important to find someone that can coach a similar play style, and find success without needing to sign too many new players. This is especially important in the case of Cruz Azul, who have found a formula for success with Anselmi and this squad.

Preferred formation can also be an important factor in the search for a coach, especially if the squad is built to play with a back-3/5, with width offered from wing-backs instead of wingers, like Cruz Azul.

Within the names mentioned to take over at Cruz Azul, Gabriel Milito seems a good option to continue what Anselmi has created. Milito has often used a back-3 with wing-backs and, like Anselmi, can rotate the attack, with 1 or 2 strikers.

Also, Milito has created a very similar play style to Anselmi, in different countries. The scatter plot analyses PPDA (permitted passes per defensiva action) against PPDA against (or PPDA of their opponents). I’ve normalized the results to remove the impact of different play styles across distinct leagues.

Like Martín Anselmi, Milito can coach teams that press with intensity and effectiveness (low PPDA) and avoid pressure from their opponents (high PPDA against).

We can observe other similarities by analysing player roles within Anselmi and Milito’s teams.

For example, their centre-backs are normally important in the build-up of attacks; receiving a high number of touches per game and generating more ball progression through passes than other positions. The left-footed centre-backs stand-out for both coaches for their involvement in possession (for example, Gonzalo Piovi in Cruz Azul and Lucas Villalba in Argentinos Juniors).

Therefore, Milito can get the most out of key qualities of 2 of the most valuable players in the Cruz Azul squad; Piovi and Jesús Orozco Chiquete.

Cruz Azul have arrived at a key moment. With Anselmi and this squad, La Máquina have found a formula for success, and whilst teams have to keep adapting in order to maintain an advantage over opponents, it’s important that Cruz Azul’s next coach doesn’t change their play style too much.

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