Chicharito's highest scoring European season

Data from StatsBomb’s open data set, photo from Marca.

Thought: StatsBomb event data set includes the positioning of every player inside the box when a shot is attempted. Using this information, we can understand trends regarding a player’s movement inside the box, which types of assists they receive more frequently, and their finishing. This can be used for scouting, based on the types of shots that a team frequently creates, plus individual or collective development.

Javier Hernández has only scored two goals in 1,170 minutes since returning to Chivas. Unfortunately, Chicharito has now passed the peak of his career. However, thanks to StatsBomb’s open data set, we can retrospectively analyze one of his greatest seasons in European football.

During the 2015-16 Bundesliga season, Chicharito ended as the third-highest non-penalty goal scorer. Only Robert Lewandowski and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored more than Chicharito, and his 16 non-penalty goals helped Bayer Leverkusen to finish in third place and qualify for the Champions League.

Hernández also beat expectations, scoring 16 times from just 10.7 xG.

Bundesliga 2015-16 top scorers, removing penalties

Using StatsBomb’s event data, I’ll analyze different concepts of Chicharito’s attacking output.

Where did he create his shots and goals from?

The heat maps below show the locations of Hernández’s shots and goals during Bundesliga 2015-16. Different colors have been used to distinguish various shot types; 1st touch, header, control (ball carries for less than two seconds) or a longer ball-carry.

Chicharito was known for his goal-poaching abilities, and therefore is isn’t surprising to see the majority of his shots coming from inside the box. However, Hernández also scored three times from outside the box.

There’s a group of seven goals from highly dangerous positions, inside or very close to the six-yard-box and between the width of the goal posts. Generating these shots, with very high xG values, was one of his main strengths during his career. Also, the graphic shows a few goals from more difficult angles.

In the centre, Chicharito scored more goals with his first touch or from a header, whilst he normally controlled or carried the ball before scoring from an angle or from outside the box. Hernández didn’t find the back of the net when attempting shots around the penalty spot.

How did he move in the box? And what types of assists did he receive?

With the “freeze frame” in the StatsBomb data set, we can see the positioning of every player inside and around the box, in the moment that a shot was attempted. The photo below visualizes this information, that StatsBomb use to improve their xG model, and we can use to better understand Chicharito’s movement and positioning inside the box.

An example of a StatsBomb “freeze-frame”, showing the shot location (the ball), attacking players (in red) and defenders (in blue). The numbers indicate the shirt numbers used by the players.

Positioning in the box (for example, if a player is at the near or far-post) depends on the context of the key pass, that created the shot. Therefore, I’ve separated key passes from the left and right sides, and into three types; crosses from wide, crosses/cutbacks from the assist zone and passes into the box.

In the following graphics, I’ve created colored points to show Chicharito’s positioning. Gold points indicate his shot locations, with blue points showing his positioning when a teammate attempted a shot.

To begin, a focus on key passes from the right, Chicharito’s most effective side during 2015-16. His ability to attack the near-post or the centre of the box stands-out, with a lack of shots at or beyond the far-post. Above all, Chicharito was highly efficient at generating shots after crosses/cutbacks from the right assist zone, with a group a very high xG shots inside the 6-yard-box.

For example, with Leverkusen creating a good chance to cross the ball from the right, Chicharito is positioned at the far-post, at the blindside of his defender. This positioning makes the marking job more challenging, as it’s difficult to follow the ball and the Mexican’s movement at the same time.

Chicharito took advantage of his positioning and acceleration, getting in-front of his marker and scoring with a header from the centre of the box.

Bayer Leverkusen generated more chances from the right side during 2015-16, and therefore there are fewer examples of shots being created from left-sided key passes. However, we can see similar trends in his movement, with Chicharito attacking the near-post and the centre of the box. When Leverkusen progressed into the left assist zones his movement to the near-post helped to create more shots for his teammates than for himself.

Finally, whilst Chicharito didn’t shoot too often after a pass to the box from a central zone, he was highly effective with these attempts. Hernández received a few through balls after making a run in-behind a defense, and often finished from an angle in a 1vs1 situation.

Here, with Eintracht Frankfurt trying to maintain a high defensive line and provoke an offside, Hernández starts his run at the perfect moment.

Hakan Calhanoglu plays a well-weighted through ball, and Chicharito has time to take a touch and finish in a 1vs1 situation.

How did he score more than his xG?

By separating shot types based on body part, we can see Chicharito’s efficiency with his right-foot. From under six xG, he scored ten goals with his right-foot. However, he also slightly out-scored his xG with left-footed shots and headers.

We’ve already seen his effectiveness to finish from more difficult angles in 1vs1 situations. In total, the Mexican scored four times from 2.5 xG in his 1vs1 shots. The goal view graphic shows precise finishing, with shots struck towards the corners of the goal, where there’s a higher post-shot xG.

There was one weakness in Chicharito’s finishing during 2015-16. He didn’t score a single goal from around the penalty spot. By visualizing his central shots, from around the penalty spot or further out, we can see quite a few blocked efforts. When his shots weren’t blocked, Hernández hit too many attempts towards the centre of the goal, where the likelihood of his shot being saved was higher.

However, Chicharito’s finishing was an overall positive, and combined with his movement to create shots from very close to the goal and in 1vs1 situations, 2015-16 became his highest scoring season in European football. With the StatsBomb database, we were able to understand the types of shots that he generated, his movements in the box and finishing abilities in various situations. Whilst a decent sample size is required, this type of analysis can help team to; sign strikers that fit the play style and types of shots they’re likely to create, better understand their player’s movements, and focus on a striker’s weaknesses in-front of goal.

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