Chivas have 5 strikers: Who should start?

Thought: It’s important to consider the impact of age curves and injuries when assessing a player, how they have affecting their performance and output.

Alan Pulido, Javier Hernández, Ricardo Marín, Armando González, Teun Wilke. Óscar García has many striker options this season, and by analysing his previous clubs, it’s likely that he’ll only start with a single 9, as he has done in jornada 1 and 2.

Who is Chivas’ best option up-front? This analysis will look at 5 important concepts for strikers, to gain a clearer idea of what each player offers García. These concepts are created by weighting different key metrics, to reduce the amount of data points needed in the analysis process.

Goal generation (for himself): How effective is the striker at consistently getting shots, and are they from high xG (goal probability) locations? xG is seen as more important than goals, as it’s a more reliable indicator of future goals.

Chance creation (for teammates): Can the striker create dangerous shooting opportunities for teammates via passes?

Involvement: Do they receive lots of touches per match and help their side in build-up play?

Defensive intensity: Are they hard-working off the ball, do they help in high pressing and generate ball recoveries?

Aerial ability: Is the striker effective at winning aerial duels and maintaining possession?

Javier Hernández

Chicharito is a legend of Mexican football, but at this moment of his career, he’s a long way off the rate of goal generation that he showed in the past. In 2024-25, Chicharito is the only Liga MX with an average of less than 1 shot per match.

His passing quality and creation has developed, but he continues to show little involvement in the build-up of attacks. Necaxa exploited this weakness in jornada 2, aggressively marking and pressing Hernández when Chivas tried to use him to help in ball progression, and Chicharito lost all of his duels. In general, Chicharito has not shown that he still has the necessary ability to make a significant contribution for Chivas, and it seems an error to keep giving him minutes.

Alan Pulido

Alan Pulido is a different player after missing the whole of 2022, due to injury. His average number of shots per match has dropped from more than 3.5 per game to less and 2, and his xG generation has ranked amongst the worst within MLS strikers in the previous couple of seasons. Playing for one of the worst attacks in MLS (Sporting Kansas City ranked 6th lowest for xG creation last season) may have had an impact, however, Kansas’ other 9 (William Agada) produced 3.5 times Pulido’s xG p 90 in 2024, and even a winger (Stephen Afrifa) ended the season above Pulido in the xG chart. It seems unlikely that Pulido will be able to repeat the output from his last season at Chivas and compete in the top scorer charts.

Pulido still has the ability to drop deep and connect attacks, and played some matches as a number 10 for Sporting Kansas in 2024. However, Pulido didn’t generate a lot of chances for teammates, and therefore wasn’t particularly productive with his final third touches. In total, Chivas’ decision to sign Pulido, especially if they did pay a reported $1.5m, seems like an error.

Armando González

To be honest, it seems pretty obvious that “Hormiga” González is Chivas’ best striker, especially if they’re looking primarily for their number 9 to be a consistent goalscorer. The only doubt about González is his lack of professional minutes, having played just 647 total minutes in Liga MX. Therefore, we can’t yet be too sure that Hormiga is going to keep up the high level of output that we’ve seen so far.

However, his production has been extraordinary in the minutes we have seen, and giving more game time to González, both to aid his development and to help Chivas get the best results in the short-term, has to be the best decision, given the information we currently have.

We can also see examples Hormiga’s intelligent movement to get himself into dangerous, goal-scoring positions, by analysing a few of his chances. For example, against Rayados, where he showed awareness of the space between centre-back and left-back.

Or here in the clásico vs América, Hormiga is alive to a loose ball and possible turnover, instantly making a run into space and pointing to where he wants the pass. This leads to a 1vs1 chance a few seconds later.

Ricardo Marín

Ricardo Marín has a clear strength, he’s one of the most intense strikers out of possession, effective in high pressing situations. Marín’s problem is his lack of goal production.

This weakness isn’t new to his time in Liga MX, we can see that Marín didn’t stand-out in this concept whilst playing in Expansión MX. Reviewing his last season with Celaya shows that he ranked below league average for the goal generation concept. Chivas made a classic error when signing Marín, bringing a striker following a large xG overperformance over a season. In 2022-23, Marín scored 0.48 goals per game for Celaya, but from an xG of just 0.24. This difference wasn’t repeatable.

Teun Wilke

9 goals last season for Tuen Wilke in Tapatío was more than his underlying numbers (xG), and therefore it probably isn’t repeatable over the longer-term. However, Wilke may still be Chivas’ 2nd best goal-getter.

Wilke’s aerial strength is his main asset, helped by his height of more than 190cm. This offers a different type of striker, if Chivas want to play more direct. Óscar García has used tall 9s in the past, like; Chukwubuiken Ikwuemesi in OH Leuven and Fraser Hornby in Reims (both 195cm tall). El Bilal Touré, who played more than 1,000 minutes up-front for García at Reims in 2021-22, ranked 4th in Ligue 1 for the amount of aerial duels contested per game.

I believe that Hormiga González should be the started when fit, but Wilke could be a good option from the bench. Given his height, Wilke could be a useful striker in García’s style. Ricardo Marín also may have a role in the squad, with his aerial strength and intensity in the press. There’s some doubts of how Alan Pulido will look back in Liga MX, but taking into account his recent output, as well as Chicharito’s, it’s Chivas’ biggest names that should be playing the least. I doubt that will be the case.

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