Is Romulo Zwarg the right midfielder for Tigres?

Photo from Claro Sports.

Thought: Romulo Zwarg is has a very different skill-set to Guido Pizarro and Rafael Carioca. Whilst Tigres have changed their play style, this signing could prove to be a long-term error.

It’s always important that football clubs consider the medium-to-long term, not just the short-term, but particularly when it comes to contracts offered to players. When a team offers a contract, they have to consider the player’s possible or probable performance levels in the final season of that contract, not just their impact in the upcoming season. Age curves are often underestimated by teams, and it’s possible that we’ve seen errors made in the length of Tigres’ contracts offered to their midfielders.

At times, a long contract makes a lot of sense. A team can maintain one of their best players for more time, add value to a player, and plan with confidence that they’ll have a key piece of the squad for many years to come. On the other hand, long contracts can reduce the flexibility and maneuverability that a team has in the market, if they’re unable to sell the player or find a loan move with another side paying 100% of the salary. This is especially common with older players, who’ve lowered their value and/or performance levels.

A lack of flexibility in the market is more impactful in Mexico than some other countries, due to the foreign player limit. Mexican teams don’t only have to consider the financial impact when committing to a contract, that could limit the amount of money available to be invested in other players, but also the foreign player spot that they’ll be taking up.

At this moment in time, Tigres are using 4 of their foreign player spots on midfielders, and only play with 2. This doesn’t seem the most efficient use of non-Mexicans.

The problem stems from Guido Pizarro and Rafael Carioca’s contracts. There’s reports that they end in the summer, but that Tigres were looking at moving-on Carioca this winter. It seems that Veljko Paunovic wants more intense midfielders, and doesn’t want Pizarro playing as a centre-back anymore. Pizarro and Carioca haven’t started together this season and Tigres have looked for another option, with Romulo Zwarg arriving for a reported $5m.

Paunovic’s decision makes sense if we analyze the development of Pizarro and Carioca’s key defensive midfielder concepts. Whilst their progressive passing have improved with greater experience, both players have dropped in their out of possession intensity.

This analysis only takes into account Pizarro playing as a midfielder, he didn’t have enough minutes in 2023-24 in that position.

Romulo- An error that will limit Tigres’ future options?

Tigres have changed their play style in recent seasons, with the change accelerating under Paunovic. Also, historic players such as Pizarro, Carioca and André-Pierre Gignac have reduced their influence and game minutes. A team’s play style is always a combination between a head coach and their players. Today, Tigres isn’t the possession-based side that Tuca Ferretti created for so many years.

Tuca’s Tigres never dropped below 56.7% of the possession in his final 6 seasons. Their average possession under Paunovic is just 51.5%.

It seems that Romulo could be effective in a more intense team, that attempts to recover a high number of balls in the midfield, and don’t have such a need to build-up attacks. This analysis of Romulo’s performances in Brazil shows his distinctive style. High effectiveness out of possession, but with the ball, little impact or progression.

Romulo Zwarg’s metrics from fbref.com. Percentile ranks vs other midfielders in Brazil Serie A. Red = 0-33. Orange = 34-66. Green = 67-100.

Romulo could be effective for Paunovic, but Tigres may have underestimated the importance of Carioca and Pizarro’s quality with possession, to control matches and build-up effectively, especially against weaker teams.

There are different reports, but it seems that Romulo has signed a 4 or 5 year contract. With a significant investment and long contract, it’s crucial that teams make efficient decisions. Will Tigres be content with a midfielder that’s so limited on the ball for such a long time? Who took the decision, and will Tigres continue with Paunovic for the length of Romulo’s contract? Or find another head coach that plays in the similar style? Romulo could be an error in the medium-to-long term, limiting Tigres’ flexibility in future markets, or resulting in a financial loss.

Thank you for reading, if you’d like to contact me regarding any questions, comments or to consult my services, you can contact me on:

• Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/tomh36.bsky.social

• Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-harrison-a682a2175/

• Twitter/X - https://x.com/tomh_36

También, se puede leer este artículo en Español- https://cambiodejuego.beehiiv.com/