Jornada 13 Review

Data from Fotmob, Sofascore and Wyscout. Photo from Récord.

Necaxa (0.98 xG) 2 - 0 (0.38 xG) Querétaro

Nicolás Larcamón’s team showed they’re capable of winning three points in a different way. This wasn’t the open Necaxa match that we’re used to, with few shots for both sides, and a lack of clear chances for Los Rayos. However, they were able to control the majority of the match and limit Querétaro’s opportunities. And given their lack open play creation, Necaxa took advantage of set-pieces to win the match. Both goals came from near-post flick-ons in set-pieces.

This graphic shows how different this game was from most Necaxa matches. Los Rayos generated less xG than usual and few shots in built-up attacks. However, with an above-average defensive display, they ended with a positive xG difference.

Mazatlán (1.15 xG) 3 - 2 (1.57 xG) Atlas

A match full of goalkeeper errors, poor decisions from defenders, and at times too much space left in midfield. Mazatlán were more clinical with their opportunities, whilst Atlas didn’t create any clear chances apart from the penalty.

It seems that Gonzalo Pineda is asking for too much defensive work from Aldo Rocha at this moment of his career. Rocha doesn’t have the physical capabilities to cover large spaces in midfield anymore, or to press and recover balls frequently. Atlas often struggled to defend after Mazatlán recovered second balls during this match. Rocha was isolated at times, and Altas’ back-three tended to drop quickly towards their goal, prioritizing box defending instead of keeping a higher line. Therefore, Mazatlán had space to easily progress the ball into.

Juárez (1.81 xG) 2 - 0 (1.29 xG) Puebla

Martín Varini adjusted his system once again in this game, switching the sides of his wingers and midfielders. José Luis Rodríguez played on the right-wing, combining with Guilherme, with Madson and Jairo Torres attacking down the left, and generating both goals in the match. The first goal came from a one-two between Torres and Madson, and as he’d switched sides, Jairo was carrying the ball inside from the left and could finish with his stronger right-foot.

This was a historic victory for Juárez, who’ve passed 20 points for the first time since buying a place in Liga MX. Also, Los Bravos now have a six point advantage over Atlas in the coefficient table, who occupy 16th place. It seems that, for the first time, Juárez won’t have to pay any fine. On the other hand, Puebla now have just two points more than Mazatlán in the coefficient table, and are at risk of paying the maximum fine.

Toluca (1.63 xG) 3 - 2 (0.53 xG) Pachuca

Pachuca offered too much space for Toluca during transitions in the first-half, especially for Alexis Vega. Eduardo Bauermann was often isolated, without coverage from “Chaka” Rodríguez, and couldn’t handle Vega 1vs1. Alexis exploited Bauermann’s doubts in his decision making, creating chances for his teammates when Pachuca’s centre-back avoided getting into a duel, and could dribble round Bauermann when he did try to tackle him.

Giving too much space to Vega once again showed a weakness of Guillermo Almada and Pachuca, when they don’t make adjustments to face specific opponents. Vega took advantage of every opportunity, ending with 1.11 xG+xA, six of seven dribbles successful, and the best individual goal of the season.

América (1.23 xG) 3 - 0 (0.35 xG) Tigres UANL

América frequently tried to create threat in transitional moments during the match, dispossessing Tigres as they patiently built-up, and attempting to exploit Brian Rodríguez’s quality in open space. Joaquim had controlled Brian in a few dangerous situations during the first half, but when it was the Brazilian centre-back who lost possession, Rodríguez had plenty of space to drive into, and find the top corner with a curled effort.

This was Guido Pizarro’s first loss as head coach, and he doesn’t just have to work on the defensive transition but also some details in their build-up. Tigres often tried to create overloads and plenty of passing options in small spaces, but at times their players weren’t able to identify the correct moment to progress or move the ball into a different area of the pitch.

For example, Rafael Carioca, Juan Brunetta, Fernando Gorriarán and Marcelo Flores create a diamond in a small space. Brunetta has the option to find Flores between the lines and progress the attack, or to switch the play towards the left. However, with a closed body orientation, Brunetta ends up returning the ball to Carioca.

A few seconds later, Carioca plays back to Brunetta, who once again can move play towards the left or can now turn and carry the ball forwards, as Érick Sánchez has dropped to block the pass to Flores. But the Argentine didn’t take either option, and Tigres continued an unthreatening spell of possession.

Pizarro took the risk of taking out Carioca in the 55th minute, and his side attempted to press more aggressively. These changes ultimately played into the hands of América, and following an outstanding pass from Sánchez, Kevin Álvarez and Víctor Dávila could exploit the space offered by Tigres to secure the win.

Guadalajara (0.93 xG) 0 - 1 (0.43 xG) Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul came away from Guadalajara with a rather undeserved victory, Nacho Rivero scoring his fifth of the season with a precise header that only had an xG of 0.04. In other articles, I’ve mentioned the consistency between Martín Anselmi and Vicente Sánchez (same formation, wing-backs getting into the box) but in this match we saw the most drastic example to date of how Cruz Azul have changed.

La Máquina haven’t had as much control over matches following Anselmi’s departure, and Chivas were able to dominate much of this encounter. Cruz Azul had 44% possession, a PPDA above 10 (the metric that Anselmi discussed in a Porto press conference), and their “tilt” was only 37%.

Tilt is a metric used to analyze a team’s control and territory during a match or season. It’s calculated by comparing a team’s possession in the final third with their opponent’s final third possession. Above 50% in the metric means that a team has had more tilt during a match or season.

Chivas were probably too one-dimensional in their attack, attempting 48 crosses across the match and 32 during the second half (only four were successful). However, their left-side did look dangerous throughout the match, as Cade Cowell often penetrated the Cruz Azul back-line with his movement and dribbling (four of five dribbles were successful), and was supported well by Mateo Chávez. Exploiting this left-side strength will be crucial if Chivas are to make the play-in.

Monterrey (2.32 xG) 1 - 2 (0.50 xG) Tijuana

Monterrey did enough to have won this match, missing five clear chances in the second half. Germán Berterame was particularly guilty of failing to take advantage of his opportunities, finishing the match with 0.96 xG from four shots, but just one on target and 0.08 post-shot xG.

However, just 12 shots created in total was a disappointment against Xolos, who once again set-back and defended deep. Apart from Sergio Canales, who has more of a free role, Monterrey’s attack wide too rigid at times, and their older wingers lack the ability to make runs in-behind and generate goalscoring situations. It seems that Rayados failed to sufficiently considering the impact of age curves when building their attack, and made an error to let Johan Rojas leave.

Analysis during 2024-25, percentile ranks of the metrics versus other attacking midfielders.

Santos Laguna (1.22 xG) 2 - 3 (1.50 xG) Atlético San Luis

A comeback win for San Luis, sealed by a superb solo goal from Vitinho on a counter-attack. Two Bruno Barticciotto goals from similar positions had given Santos a commanding lead, but they couldn’t hold-on for the win. Barticciotti is right-footed, but scored both goals in this match, and four of his six Santos goals with his left. Poor goalkeeping did contribute to the goals, but his ability to strike the ball well with both feet is a great strength, making it harder to defend against Bruno in the box, as defenders can’t show him onto his “weak” foot.

José Abella was at fault in both of the first two San Luis goals. Abella lacked concentration and had a poor body shape when Rodrigo Dourado got in-front of him to score from a very dangerous position. Later on, Abella jumped to press Juan Sanabria, and was slow to get back into his position within the Santos back-four.

Abella jumps to Sanabria, created a huge gap in the back-line. A midfielder should probably cover the gap in this situation.

But without any cover, Abella has to work hard to recover his position. But he begins to walk back, and therefore can’t catch-up with Sebastián Salles-Lamonge, who goes past Carlos Acevedo in the 1vs1 chance and scores.

León (1.97 xG) 1 - 2 (0.82 xG) Pumas UNAM

There’s an argument that defenders should let opponents shoot from range, moving out of the sightline of the goalkeeper and maintaining confidence that with a clear view they’ll be able to save a low xG chance. Trying to block a shot could create a dangerous deflection, or block a keeper’s view and reduce their reaction time. Alfonso Blanco couldn’t clearly see José Luis Caicedo’s shot, which turned out to be the winner for Pumas.

The xG from this match suggests that León would normally win. Whilst Pumas created more shots (14 to 10), La Fiera have three very high quality chances. Andrés Guardado missed with most of the goal open, whilst Jhonder Cádiz failed to take advantage of a partly open goal, mis-timing his slide at the far-post, and the chance didn’t even count as a shot or towards the xG. However, Eduardo Berizzo’s side once again struggled to create regularly opportunities against a low block, in the final minutes. Manufacturing more situations for James Rodríguez to put balls into the box when the opponent drops deep is something that León could develop. James only crossed three times after coming on in the 59th minute, but two of those crosses did find a teammate.

Thank you for reading, if you’d like to contact me regarding any questions, comments or to consult my services, you can contact me on:

• Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/tomh36.bsky.social

• Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-harrison-a682a2175/

• Twitter/X - https://x.com/tomh_36

También, se puede leer este artículo en Español- https://cambiodejuego.beehiiv.com/