Jornada 16 Review

Data from Fotmob (xG), Sofascore, Wyscout and Golstats, photo from Telemundo.

Pachuca (0.51 xG) 0 - 0 (1.28 xG) Tigres UANL

It seemed like Guido Pizarro wanted to give his players a bit of a rest and didn’t ask for too much intensity out of possession, which is understandable given Tigres’ recent, and future, fixture list, and their physical load. Tigres had less possession and a PPDA above 13, remaining patient in a 5-4-1 mid-block that Pachuca couldn’t break-down.

Los Tuzos didn’t create a single shot inside the box until “Chofis” López came on, who set-up Salomon Rondón for their only clear chance, with an excellent ball behind the Tigres defense. Joaquim missed the best opportunity of the match, a diving header with an open goal to aim at. These sides could meet again in liguilla, which would be a lot more interesting than this match.

Guadalajara (0.82 xG) 1 - 0 (0.32 xG) Puebla

Puebla haven’t scored for five matches, and once again lost 1-0 to a goal from distance. Érick Gutierrez’s goal looks like an error from Julio González, but it was slightly deflected and is another example of the importance of defenders not blocking the goalkeeper’s view when an opponent shoots from range. If a defender can’t get his body right in-front of the ball, it’s better to be positioned towards a side that leaves a clear view for the keeper, similar to how a wall would be set-up for a free kick.

Chivas may yet sneak into the play-in, but it’s likely to feel like a wasted season. Their attack has been the issue throughout the campaign, average just one xG per game, and both Óscar García and Gerardo Espinoza have consistently not used their best attackers.

At least Espinoza is playing his best full-backs/wing-backs, Mateo Chávez and Miguel Gómez. Both already seemed like Chivas’ best options whilst playing for Tapatío in the Liga de Expansión, considering their performance levels and the historic adaptation to Liga MX. Also, Alan Mozo productivity and physical level has been dropping for a while.

But in attack, Cade Cowell is still on the bench (just three games as a starter) despite generating 0.5 xG + xA p90 last season, half of what Chivas have managed in total this tournament, whilst Armando González has played just 131 minutes! His xG per game during Apertura 2024 (0.64) is more than Chicharito and Teun Wilke, combined. It’s another example of something I’ve seen a fair few times in football, head coaches are not necessarily good at identifying talent, and can be very easily biased by specific moments.

Juárez (1.07 xG) 2 - 2 (0.85 xG) Necaxa

Nicolás Larcamón needs to be careful about the decisions of his attackers. Necaxa had scored four goals from distance in the previous two matches, but this wasn’t sustainable, and may have overly-inflated the confidence levels of his players, leading to more shots from very poor positions. In the first-half, Juárez created more xG than Necaxa, and a goal, from just a single shot, whilst their opponents managed nine.

Los Rayos scored twice from more dangerous positions during the second half, but Juárez earned a draw with two goals after crosses to the box. Both were scored by midfielders attacking the box, with Dieter Villalpando arriving unmarked to score from a second ball.

Cruz Azul (1.70 xG) 2 - 1 (0.47 xG) León

Nicolás Fonseca was the key man in this game, for good and bad. At times, towards the start of the match, the midfielder was positioned too high, and couldn’t help cover the gap between full-back and center-back, or avoid Cruz Azul from having an extra player out wide.

But later on in the match, Fonseca stayed closer to his defensive line, covering his teammates and creating a back-five when necessary. During the second half, it seems that he was under stricter instructions to cover his defense, and we saw Fonseca dropping-in on both sides, not just on the right like during the first-half.

Unfortunately for León, the Uruguayan lost his head for a moment, and was sent-off for a second yellow, which changed the game. Cruz Azul created nearly one xG after the red, and both goals.

Eduardo Berizzo made an important tactical change for this match, playing without Jhonder Cádiz and without a striker. Stiven Mendoza and Emiliano Rigoni had the tasks of attacking spaces left by Cruz Azul’s wing-backs. Whilst León sometimes lost the ball by playing too direct, La Fiera showed that, despite recent results and fairly average underlying numbers, they can still compete with the strongest sides in Liga MX.

Querétaro (1.28 xG) 1 - 2 (1.02 xG) Atlas

Creating fewer xG than Querétaro despite winning a penalty is pretty poor from Atlas. In their underlying numbers, this is the worst Atlas season since their final tournament under Diego Cocca.

Benjamín Mora started the match with Lucas Rodríguez as a false-nine, and therefore it didn’t make sense to start with Pablo Barrera on the right. Well, it never makes to play Barrera at this moment of his career, but especially if there’s no reference to attack his crosses. Barrera crossed eight times without creating anything, at times putting the ball in the box despite Querétaro not having anyone occupying the penalty area. Querétaro improved in the second half, and put Atlas’ defense under a lot of pressure. Adonis Preciado scored with an excellent finish, but Los Gallos Blancos couldn’t find a second goal.

Monterrey (0.60 xG) 1 - 0 (0.67 xG) América

A big error from Luis Malagón, again impacted by having defenders blocking his view, decided this match, which had few chances for either side. América managed just seven shots, and Las Águilas have now failed to win in their final five matches.

Back in February, I analyzed the high efficiency of América’s attack, and how they break the league trend by generating high xG without too many final third entries. The problem, which we’ve seen in recent matches, is when América’s attack isn’t very efficient. It’s difficult to beat stronger sides, who tend to dominate their games more than América. Rayados and Cruz Azul, in both legs of the CONCACAF Champions League, had more find third entries than Las Águilas.

It seems that the Diego Valdés false-nine experiment isn’t working. América don’t have the box arriving wingers, who consistently make runs in-behind, that they need to make the system work, and Valdés doesn’t have the ability to create shots from very high xG locations. Jardine has injuries to deal with, but Víctor Dávila should be the starting striker.

Atlético San Luis (0.59 xG) 0 - 1 (1.24 xG) Toluca

For the first time since jornada four, Toluca played with a back-three/five. “Turco” Mohamed had matched-up Mazatlán’s and Pumas’ systems, but stuck with a back-four when facing other back-fives, like Necaxa and Puebla. Was this an adjustment that Turco saw as necessary for this match, or preparation for liguilla?

Los Diablos Rojos made the most of transitions to attack San Luis, especially down their opponent’s right-side, which has been a weakness all season. The goal is a great example, and suggests that Toluca had been preparing their transitional attacks.

Recognizing a potential turnover in midfield, Jesús Gallardo advances, leaving his marking responsibility in the direct duel against San Luis’ wing-back. It’s a risky decision, but effective to exploit the counter-attack.

When Marcel Ruíz finds Alexis Vega, Gallardo is already away from his marker and has space to attack.

Vega’s easily able to find Gallardo, who finishes in the 1vs1.

Mazatlán (0.43 xG) 0 - 2 (1.46 xG) Tijuana

Without Nicolás Benedetti and facing an opponent that didn’t want possession (Tijuana had 36%), Mazatlán generated very little. Xolos, with a penalty, and individual goal from Frank Boya, knocked-out Mazatlán out of play-in contention.

Los Cañoneros will play América, away, in jornada 17, and it seems like Víctor Manuel Vucetich isn’t going to achieve the goal of avoiding last place in the coefficient table. However, I think it’s probably the best decision if he stays next season. Their defensive performances have been impressive this campaign, conceding under one xG per game, and Mazatlán rank seventh for xG against. Hugo González has been a factor, letting-in 3.4 goals more than the xG post-shot model expects, but the lack of talent in attack is the key Mazatlán weakness. Rodolfo Pizarro, Mauro Lainez and Édgar Bárcenas should be let-go, and with smart replacements, and a better striker, Vucetich could make the top-ten.

Pumas UNAM (1.30 xG) 2 - 0 (0.47 xG) Santos Laguna

Santos have just 17 points in the whole 2024-25 season. 14 teams have 17 or more just in the Clausura. Matches away from home have been particularly problematic, with just two points won across the entire season. It’s difficult to win matches without a natural center-back in the team, and this is the reality for Santos right now, with full-backs Édson Gutiérrez and Ismael Govea starting in the center of defense for the previous two matches. Santos have had some bad luck with injuries, but they only have two senior center-backs in the whole squad, and one of them, Anderson Santamaría, hasn’t managed more than 1,000 league minutes in the previous three seasons.

Pumas exploited the lack of center-backs and poor marking in the box, scoring twice from crosses. Efraín Juárez’s side stay tenth with the win, but face a tough trip to face Tigres on Saturday, and still have a lot to improve, especially in their deep build-up and high pressing, which Juárez visibly asked for more of during this match. Pumas is proving very different challenge to Atlético Nacional, and don’t have the talent advantage that Juárez enjoyed with the Colombian giants.

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