Jornada 2 Review

Data shown in the article and xG from fbref.com unless stated. Photo from @clubleonfc on X.

Thought: Only 4 teams out of 16 created more than 1 xG in this game week (article written before Pachuca-Santos). Attacking decision making in Liga MX is a huge weakness, and opportunity for a team to exploit.

On Cambio de Juego, every week will begin with a recap of the jornada, in chronological order. In this review we will analyse the underlying numbers and any trends or take-aways from the round of fixtures.

América (2.5 xG) 1 - 1 (0.6 xG) Tijuana

Diego Cervantes, the América U23 head coach, prepared a defensive, reactive game, using a back-5 to prevent Tijuana from creating a spare player in the last line. América created a few dangerous counter-attacks in the first-half, but only managed a total of 3 shots. Xolos weren’t too effective in attack, but scored the first goal after a high turnover.

The match changed in the 60th minute when Esteban Lozano subbed-on and Cervantes adjusted to a 4-4-2. Lozano scored after a minute on the pitch and América missed 5 clear chances to come away with, what would’ve been, a deserved victory. Another example that many América U23 players should be getting senior minutes. On the other hand, Tijuana have to find better defensive solutions. Osorio’s side have too often left themselves open on the counter-attack this season.

Puebla (0.2 xG) 1 - 2 (0.3 xG) Atlético San Luis

A TOTAL of 0.5 xG in the whole match, full of bad decisions in the final 3rd. Incredibly, there were only 2 shots inside the box in the whole match, 1 of which was Rodrigo Dourado’s game winning golazo.

Until now, we haven’t seen the high press intensity that was a key part of Pablo Guede’s style in the past; San Luis and Monterrey completed more than 86% of their passes in their matches against Puebla. However, Guede’s low block has been more effective. In their last 9 Apertura 24 matches, all of Puebla’s opponents had more than 20 box touches, but La Franja have only allowed 21 box touches in 2 matches under Guede.

Tigres (0.6 xG) 2 - 1 (0.7 xG) Mazatlán

2 wins in 2 games for Tigres, but this wasn’t a convincing victory. Víctor Manuel Vucetich effectively created a tight match, and limited Tigres’ creation in open play. 0.6 xG is Tigres’ lowest total during Veljko Paunovic’s time in charge.

Tigres had 64% of possession, and Mazatlán’s PPDA was very high at 26.6 (from Wyscout). This shows their lack of intensity in the press. However, Tigres ended the match with more xG from set pieces than open play, and needed some luck in both goals, with a deflected shot and an own goal, rebounding in off Hugo González’s back.

PPDA means passes permitted per defensive action, and is used to measure the pressing intensity and effectiveness of a team. The metric counts, on average, the number of passes that an opponent completes before a defensive actions (tackle, interception, foul). PPDA only takes into account events in the final 60% of the pitch, to focus on zones further away from a team’s goal.

Necaxa (0.8 xG) 3 - 2 (1.9 xG) Guadalajara

At first glance, this was an undeserved result, but after removing Alvarado’s penalty (in the 98th minute), and Chivas’ first goal, their xG was only 0.4. Necaxa did outscore their xG though, and goalkeeper Eduardo García didn’t impress on his debut.

It’s difficult to understand some of Óscar García’s decisions in this game. Under Nicolás Larcamón, Necaxa are undergoing an adaptation to play with a higher defensive line, and in jornada 1 Jorge Ruvalcaba took advantage of the space behind Necaxa’s defense. It appeared a perfect game for Cade Cowell, Chivas’ most effective off ball runner, who frequently gets behind defenses and receives progressive passes.

Cowell stayed on the bench all game, whilst “Chicharito” played the full match, only creating 1 shot and losing all 4 of his duels. Also, Necaxa’s first goal came as a result of Pavel Pérez exploiting Hugo Camberos’ poor aerial ability, as Camberos was asked to fill in at right-back momentarily after an injury to Miguel Gómez.

Toluca (0.4 xG) 1 - 1 (0.7 xG) Monterrey

A game with few chances was drawn after 2 high quality goals from Helinho and Sergio Canales.

Martín Demichelís again used a 4-3-3 system with different wing dynamics. Sergio Canales started on the right and had freedom to move inside whilst in the final 3rd, as Ricardo Chávez overlapped. On the other side, “Tecatito” Corona (Joao Rojas started in jornada 1) held width, with Gerardo Arteaga often sat more centrally, in the half-space. Germán Berterame returned up-front, but once again Rayados managed less than 1 xG.

Juárez (0.2 xG) 1 - 0 (0.3 xG) Cruz Azul

Just 5 shots in the whole match, none on target and 0.3 xG. Can we now say that Martín Anselmi has serious problems to solve? It was a similar story to their jornada 1 match, facing an opposing back-5 out of possession, and a lack of crossing efficiency. Cruz Azul have completed just 15% of their crosses in their opening 2 matches.

On paper, Juárez started with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Martín Varini prepared intelligent adjustments to face-up Cruz Azul’s system. In high pressing situations, Juárez often man marked all short passing options, with José Luis Rodríguez’s role the most important. Rodríguez defended the left-wing, marking Jorge Sánchez or Lorenzo Faravelli (if they rotated positions). Normally this decision would leave a Cruz Azul centre-back free, but Juárez pressed with 3 as Jairo Torres shifted over to join Dieter Villalpando and Óscar Estupiñan. Also, Estupiñan often jumped to press Kevin Mier, whilst blocking the passing lane to Gonzalo Piovo, to force longer passes.

Rodríguez then created a back-5 when Juárez had to defend deep, covering Jorge Sánchez’s far-post arrivals and allowing Ralph Orquin to defend in the centre. Crucial in the defensive phase and the only goalscorer, Rodríguez produced a man-of-the-match performance.

Atlas (0.6 xG) 1 - 2 (1.3 xG) León

4 progressive passes (4th highest in the match) in just 27 minutes on the pitch, and 18 attempted passes. James Rodríguez is going to create huge problems for Liga MX defenses with his passing quality.

The match changed when James, Nicolás Fonseca and Jhonder Cádiz entered, and arguably it was the Venezuelan who had the biggest impact. Cádiz played a role in both goals. He showed his ability to drop deep and help León progress with back-to-goal play before James won the penalty, and then got in-behind Atlas’ defenders before creating an own goal with a shot from a tight angle.

Querétaro (0.7 xG) 3 - 2 (1.8 xG) Pumas

I think we might be seeing Alex Padilla debut for Pumas next week, and Gustavo Lema will likely regret not sending him out against Querétaro. 19-year-old Pablo Lara, who’s only played 12 times for the U23 side, was somewhat at fault for all 3 Querétaro goals in this match.

It would be wrong to put all the blame on Lara though. 37-year-old Pablo Barrera strolled into the box completely unmarked for his 1st goal, and lobbed Lara for his 2nd with Pumas’ defensive line barely breaking into a jog to chase him back. Strange and frustrating goals for Pumas to concede, especially as their attack created enough chances to have won this match.

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