Jornada 3 Review

4 teams remain undefeated, and Necaxa win their 2nd consecutive match with Larcamón

Author

Tom Harrison
January 27, 2025

xG from Fotmob, adjusted for plays with more than 1 shot. Other data from Wyscout. Photo from clubnecaxa.mx.

On Cambio de Juego, every week begins with a recap of the jornada, in chronological order. In this review we will analyse the underlying numbers and any trends or take-aways from the round of fixtures.

Atlético San Luis (1.49 xG) 0 - 3 (1.73 xG) Necaxa

Nicolás Larcamón must be very effective at getting his ideas across to his players. In various teams, we’ve seen quick adaptations to his game model, and it seems that Necaxa’s squad already have a good understanding of how Larcamón’s out of possession marking approach works.

I had doubts about the ability of Necaxa’s squad to play in a higher defensive line, and it’s possible that other teams will exploit this aspect of his style. However, Larcamón’s Necaxa have immediately shown an improved ability to recover balls in midfield. More than 50% of Necaxa’s ball recoveries in their previous 2 matches have been in the middle 3rd, their average was only 41% in Apertura 2024. Also, with José Paradela, Agustín Palavecino y Diber Cambindo (and the direct style that Eduardo Fentanes created), Larcamón has the pieces to exploit counter-attacks. We saw this strength in the victory at San Luis.

Tijuana (1.42 xG) 2 - 1 (0.88 xG) Querétaro

An important win for Juan Carlos Osorio’s team, helped by José Canale’s late tackle and red card. Tijuana still suffered in some defensive transitions, especially in Adonis Preciado’s goal, but Xolos did enough to earn victory.

There isn’t too much to learn from a match with a 12th minute red card, but Osorio did make attacking substitutions and half-time and brought on Efraín Álvarez to play in a different role to usual. Álvarez normally plays close to the right wing, but occupied the right-half-space more frequently, with Domingo Blanco or Emanuel Reynoso out wide. Tijuana created dangerous chances from the right-side, including the winning goal.

Mazatlán (1.36 xG) 2 - 1 (0.91 xG) Toluca

It’s not often that a team wins with only 5 shots, but Mazatlán made the most of their 2 clear chances, with marking errors from Toluca in both goals.

A noteworthy aspect of this match was Víctor Manuel Vucetich’s plan to press Toluca, and how often Toluca lost the ball playing more direct. A PPDA of 7.26 was lower than Mazatlán 2024-25 average (11.94).

Mazatlán’s references in their man-marking approach, whilst in a high block/press

Toluca had little efficiency when they had to play direct, completing a total of 30% of their long balls.

Cruz Azul (0.81 xG) 1 - 1 (0.24 xG) Puebla

After a difficult week and without Martín Anselmi, it turned out to be a similar game to Cruz Azul’s first 2 matches. Lots of possession (79%) and crosses (23), but little effectiveness in attack, with just 0.81 xG generated and 4 successful crosses.

Vicente Sánchez maintained Anselmi’s back-3, but sent out 2 strikers and used Omar Campos as a started wth Carlos Rotondi playing in the half-space. Luka Romero also made his debut in the 2nd half, and attempted 3 shots from outside the box, but all were blocked. Once again, Pablo Guede’s Puebla limited their opponents chance creation with a very compact low block. Puebla have the league’s worst attack after 3 matches, but their xG against is the 3rd best in Liga MX (Fotmob).

León (1.91 xG) 1 - 0 (0.57 xG) Juárez

James Rodríguez scored the only goal, a penalty, in his 1st León match as a started. La Fiera generated enough chances to have scored a 2nd, and controlled the majority of the match before they scored. James attempted plenty of high-risk passes in this match and only completed 60%, but he did manage to progress the ball 9 times to the final 3rd (leader in the match) and twice into the box.

León allowed Juárez to take the initiative after the penalty, and Los Bravos created their 4 shots inside of the box whilst a goal down. León may have to adjust their mentality to maintain control of matches after taking the lead.

Guadalajara (0.95 xG) 1 - 1 (1.00 xG) Tigres

A week ago, I found it hard to understand Óscar García’s decisions to leave Cade Cowell on the bench for the whole game vs Necaxa, and play with Chicharito for the whole 90 minutes. We saw the argument for Cowell in just 5 minutes. Érick Gutiérrez found Cowell behind Tigres’ defensive line and whilst he couldn’t get past Nahuel Guzmán, Teun Wilke scored the rebound.

Diego Reyes had a head start, but still couldn’t control Cade Cowell’s pace and prevent him from receiving the ball between Tigres’ defence and Nahuel Guzmán

Tigres responded and deserved the point. Veljko Paunovic’s side progressed the ball more through their right side during this match, creating crosses and cutbacks from inside or close to the box, for example in Juan Brunetta’s goal.

Santos Laguna (2.89 xG) 1 - 4 (3.33 xG) América

The most open game of the season. Normally head coaches attempt to create tight matches when they face stronger opposition, limiting their chances and trying to exploit a game with more variance. Tano Ortiz did something different, and attacked. In a 3-5-2 formación, their wing-backs overlapped quickly, with midfielders Fran Villalba and Javier Güemez crashing the box. Santos generated their highest xG since November 2023, but missed plenty of chances to have scored more than just Anthony Lozano’s penalty.

The problem with creating a more open match was the opportunities given to América. They scored 4 times, exploiting spaces on the counter-attack and when they were able to break Santos’ press. Ortiz hasn’t played with 3 centre-backs very often in his career, and his defensive line lacked coordination when a defender jumped and others had to cover.

Monterrey (1.46 xG) 2 - 3 (1.57 xG) Pachuca

Martín Demichelis took Monterrey to last season’s final, but there are doubts surrounding his coaching and the squad building process at Los Rayados. Monterrey have the 3rd highest squad value in Liga MX, but after 19 games under Demichelis, their xG difference per game is 0. Neither positivo, nor negative.

It seems that Demichelis is asking for too much defensive work from Jorge Rodríguez in the 4-3-3 system. El Corcho has made 4 tackles per game this season, 2nd highest in the division, and without another pivot, at times there isn’t cover when Rodríguez has to press the ball. Pachuca exploited moments when they could attract Rodríguez to the ball and find space to his side.

Pumas (0.63 xG) 0 - 0 (0.48 xG) Atlas

A game with very few chances to end the match week, between teams using similar systems.

Atlas have had problems in ball progression this season, and no one has created fewer touches in the box after 3 matches. In this game, it seems that the idea was to exploit the 3vs2 in build-up and progress play through their “stoppers”. But Pumas could easily adjust, with their interior midfielders jumping to the Atlas centre-backs after receiving and cover from the Pumas “stopper” on the same line. Matheus Dória and Víctor Ríos completed just 5 passes to the final 3rd (from 12 attempts).

Pumas interior midfielder jumps and presses Dória, who turns inside to play backwards

Thank you for reading, if you’d like to contact me regarding any questions, comments or to consult my services, you can contact me on:

También, se puede leer este artículo en Español- https://cambiodejuego.beehiiv.com/