Jornada 4 Review

xG and xA from Fotmob, adjusted for plays with more than 1 shot. Other data from Wyscout. Photo from MSN.

América (2.02 xG) 3 - 0 (0.11 xG) Atlético San Luis

Víctor Dávila is taking his opportunity to play as the number 9 for América. Considering Henry Martín’s age (32), his injuries and that his average shots per game have dropped below 1.5, América have to think about their future starting striker. Dávila is a rather complete and versatile forward, and importantly has shown an ability to get into very dangerous goal-scoring positions to finish off América’s attacks. This has been a critical part of Martín’s game.

Domenec Torrent still hasn’t resolved his right-sided problems following the sale of Ricardo Chávez. San Luis have tried 3 different starters at right-wing-back (Chávez started the last 12 games in Apertura 2024), and 3 starters as the right-sided centre-back. Their opponents have frequently created chances from this side.

Puebla (1.34 xG) 0 - 1 (0.86 xG) Mazatlán

I haven’t seen many own-goals with an own-assist (is that a thing?). Either way, it’s worth watching if you haven’t seen it yet. Mazatlán had 4 shots in this game, 1 less than their win over Toluca, and 2 of those came from a set-piece. Mazatlán can enjoy the breaks coming their way, but performance levels don’t give too much confidence for the whole season.

Puebla lacked methods of creating good chances against Mazatlán’s low-block, but did deserve a draw, given Ángel Robles’ open goal miss in the 85th minute. It’s a tough situation for Pablo Guede, given his lack of resources. None of Puebla’s attacking midfielders are above league average in xG or xA, and none of their strikers are above average xG p90, in 2024-25.

León (1.33 xG) 2 - 1 (0.83 xG) Guadalajara

2 goals for Jhonder Cádiz in León’s 3rd consecutive win, underlining his importance for La Fiera. The 1st goal came from a set-piece, with León making the most of James Rodríguez’s set-piece delivery. I had previously mentioned in my analysis of James that León should focus on their set-piece design and training, to take advantage of the Colombian’s dead ball precision. This was a simple, but effective play, using Stiven Barreiro as a blocker, allowing Cádiz to attack the ball without pressure.

As in the win over Juárez, León couldn’t keep up their pressure and control after both goals, but once again, Eduardo Berizzo came away with the 3 points.

Tigres (3.25 xG) 4 - 0 (0.53 xG) Tijuana

Tigres used their high press to win this game, exploiting Xolos’ vulnerability when trying to build from the back and transition opportunities. Veljko Paunovic’s team created 17 final 3rd recoveries (3rd highest against Xolos during Osorio’s time in charge) and 6 shots after winning the ball in the opposition half.

Tomorrow, on Cambio de Juego, I’m going to explore what’s going wrong for Juan Carlos Osorio’s side and some adjustments he could make to improve the team defensively. Their xG against is currently the worst in the league.

Necaxa (1.73 xG) 1 - 3 (2.05 xG) Cruz Azul

As of now, it seems that Vicente Sánchez could stay as Cruz Azul head coach for the season, but his side haven’t looked too convincing his first 2 matches.

Cruz Azul created more in this game, but showed much less control that what we became used to seeing in the past year. Necaxa generated more than 0.7 xG in set-piece situations and were consistently able to progress the ball up their left-wing. But, helped by a Erik Lira golazo, Cruz Azul came away with the 1st win this season.

Querétaro (0.36 xG) 0 - 1 (1.28 xG) Pachuca

Impacted by Carlos Moreno’s poor season, Pachuca received 10 more goals than was expected in Apertura 2024. However, their underlying performance never dropped too low, and it’s not a major surprise to see Los Tuzos getting better results this season, with 3 wins from 3.

Both teams had 12 shots in this match, but there was a large difference in the quality of the chances. Whilst Querétaro shot twice from with the box, Pachuca shot 10 times. Los Gallos Blancos struggled to deal with Salomón Rondón, who finished the game with 6 shots, and used his physicality to score the only goal of the game, from a corner.

Atlas (1.12 xG) 3 - 3 (1.05 xG) Monterrey

This game was characterised by poor marking in the box from both teams. Atlas took the lead at half-time, making the most of Jeremy Márquez’s box arrivals. The 1st goal clearly shows how Monterrey didn’t follow his attacking runs from deep. As the cross is attempted, Márquez is unmarked, with 2 strikers pinning the Rayados defenders and lack of cover from a holding-midfielder.

Monterrey responded with 3 goals directly from crosses, twice finding space in the box with “crossing” movements. For example, before their 3rd goal, Atlas are controlling the situation, with man-marking inside the penalty area. But 2 Rayados plays crossing over in the box was able to create separation.

“Platano” Alvarado attacked the front post, and scored his header. It seems that the Atlas defense weren’t clear on their roles in that moment. Gaddi Aguirre followed his man, which opened space at the near-post, but Márquez and Matheus Dória stayed more in their zones. Therefore, Alvarado was able to arrive unmarked, in a dangerous zone.

Atlas earned a point in the 89th minute, ending a game full of poor marking with a Dória headed goal, arriving unmarked at the far-post. 3 draws and 0 wins for Atlas and Monterrey.

Juárez (1.55 xG) 1 - 0 (0.60 xG) Santos Laguna

0 open play goals this season, just 1 open play shot in this game and 0 points. Santos yet again create very little away from home.

Another 1-0 win a home for Martín Varini, and there are some positive signs for Juárez. Up to this point, Los Bravos have improved defensively and in the control of possession, with an above league average passing accuracy after 4 games. José Luis Rodríguez stood-out again, helping with and without the ball. He ended the match with 4 key passes, 1 assist, 2 dribbles and 3 ball recoveries.

Pumas UNAM (0.62 xG) 1 - 1 (0.72 xG) Toluca

Pumas were unlucky not to get a late penalty, but they’ve only created 1.25 xG in their last 2 home games, versus Atlas and Toluca. Gustavo Lema’s side have generated less threat following César Huerta’s departure and without the speed and off-ball movement of Jorge Ruvalcaba.

Adalberto Carrasquilla started for the 1st time in this match, and his creativity will be crucial for Pumas going forwards. No one in Lema’s squad ranked amongst the top 40 Liga MX players for xA (expected assists) last season.

Analysis of Carrasquilla’s creativity, data from fbref.com

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