Jornada 5 Review

xG and xA from Fotmob, adjusted for plays with more than 1 shot. Other data from Wyscout. Photo from Toluca on X.

Mazatlán (0.61 xG) 1 - 2 (0.47 xG) León

2 León goals in the first 9 minutes were enough for La Fiera to maintain their perfect start. The 2nd goal was an excellent counter-attack, featuring an impressive assist from Edgar Guerra, but Hugo González could’ve done more in both goals.

I don’t want to complain about refereeing decisions but it’s hard to ignore when they impact the interest levels in a match. There wasn’t excessing force in either red cards, which is necessary to send-off a player, and these decisions reduced this game’s entertainment.

Tijuana (1.41 xG) 2 - 3 (2.48 xG) Cruz Azul

When Juan Carlos Osorio sent-out 5 centre-backs in this match, it seemed that he was going to adjust his first line to improve the build-up and defensive transition. However, Rafael Fernández and Jesús Gómez played in midfield, with Francisco Contreras starting as a left-back, before moving inside as usual.

As I’d analyzed in my Friday article last week, Osorio’s structure frequently leaves Xolos without any left-sided coverage in defensive transition. We saw this again in the 6th minute, before Luka Romero’s goal. Unai Bilbao had to leave the centre to defend the left-wing, leaving Kevin Balanta alone to defend the box, and Romero arrived unmarked to score.

Tijuana responded rather well in the 2nd half, but it was always going to be difficult with a 3 goal deficit.

América (1.93 xG) 4 - 0 (0.63 xG) Juárez

11 goals in América’s last 3 games, all coming from inside the box. Las Águilas have so many methods of creating danger, and in this match they were more effective in their transitions.

The first goal was a good example. In Amérca’s positional attacks, José Luis Rodríguez created a back-5 for Juárez to follow Dagoberto Espinoza’s attacking runs, but after a midfield recovery, Espinoza could attack the space, to start the move that ended in Víctor Dávila’s goal. Their 2nd goal came from a pressing situation and high recovery, which isn’t so common in André Jardine’s play style, but it something they can exploit in certain moments.

América attacked with Zendejas moving inside from the right, and Espinoza creating width

Guadalajara (1.05 xG) 1 - 1 (0.51 xG) Querétaro

4 games without a win for Óscar García. Jonathan Padilla scored for the 2nd consecutive game, but Chivas didn’t do enough to find another goal and control the match.

Querétaro attempted direct attacks on the left-side on various occasions during this match, trying to use Adonis Preciado’s explosiveness and Francisco Venegas’ overlaps. The strategy didn’t always work, but it was their route to an equaliser. A switch of play found Preciado in space, Venegas overlapped and cut the back ball for Aldahir Pérez, who scored his 1st Liga MX goal.

Pachuca (0.53 xG) 0 - 0 (0.44 xG) Atlas

Very little creation from either side in this 0-0. Guillermo Almada rotated his midfield and attack ahead of another mid-week match (their jornada 1 game vs León). Pachuca had the chance to win all 3 points after Jeremy Márquez’s red card and bringing on regular starters such as Salomon Rondón, but they couldn’t create a clear opportunity.

Atlas improved defensively after their errors in the 3-3 draw with Monterrey in mid-week, but once again lacked creativity. Only Querétaro have a lower xG per game this season.

Monterrey (1.48 xG) 1 - 0 (0.96 xG) Necaxa

Martín Demichelis adjusted his structure before and during this match. Fidel Ambriz started alongside Jorge Rodríguez (in a 4-2-3-1) to help out of possession and better cover the central lanes than the 4-3-3 that Demichelis has used this season. Ambriz wasn’t always successful in his defensive duels, but his intensity and positioning helped improve Monterrey’s performance in defensive transitions. He was also positioned well to make the most of a second ball on the edge of the box, and score the only goal of the match.

In the 59th minute, Demichelis decided to change to a 5-3-2, with Rodríguez dropping into centre-back, matching Necaxa’s back-5 and letting Nicolás Larcamón’s side take the initiative. Los Rayos had 66% possession in the 2nd half and 11 of their 15 shots, but couldn’t earn a draw.

Toluca (1.98 xG) 1 - 0 (0.36 xG) Tigres

Tigres lost for the first time this season, in a game dominated by Los Diablos Rojos. After beating Tijuana 4-0, and having such success with their press and attacking transitions, Veljko Paunovic surprised with his game plan. Tigres played more in a mid-block this match and Toluca controlled for the majority. Their PPDA (passes per defensive action) was 13.1, the first time that it’s exceeded 10 in Clausura 25 (higher = less pressure).

Toluca didn’t generate much threat until Paulinho entered in the 65th minute, having attempted the majority of their shots from range. But with the Portuguese striker on the pitch, Toluca had 6 open-play shots from inside the box and Paulinho scored the winning goal, set-up by Marcel Ruíz. Brian García also made a difference from the bench, arriving in space on the right-wing to create 4 crosses and a shot, after coming on in the 81st minute.

Santos Laguna (1.48 xG) 0 - 2 (1.40 xG) Puebla

Santos allowing Puebla to create their highest xG and shot total in an away game since 2023 is worrying. Los Guerreros suffered after losses in their build-up, 8 times Puebla created a shot following an opposition half recovery.

Removing penalties, Santos have generated 4.1 xG without scoring this season. This run won’t continue over the mid-to-long-term, but the decision to loan out Alberto Ocejo to Leones Negros for the whole season looks like an error. Ocejo has the best goals per game ratio in the Liga de Expansión in 2024-25, and had already shown good xG generation in Liga MX 2023-24.

Expected goals analysis of Santos’ striker options

Atlético San Luis (1.29 xG) 2 - 3 (2.08 xG) Pumas UNAM

An important aspect of this match was Pumas’ counterpress, especially on the left-wing. Gustavo Lema’s side could prevent San Luis form building-up and generated dangerous turnovers.

Roberto Ergas was aggressive in this moments, jumping to stop San Luis from advancing up the wing, with a Pumas interior midfielder marking the closest San Luis midfielder. With Pumas man-marking close passing options, there was no easy way out, and this situation ended in San Luis losing the ball, before Adalberto Carrasquilla got a shot off.

A very similar situation, Pumas’ triangle around the ball with Ergas and an interior midfielder supporting the counter-press. Jorge Ruvalcaba recovered the ball and Ignacio Pussetto scored the game’s first goal.

There was a similar concept and structure created here, in a more advanced zone. Pumas’ wide centre-back stepped-up to mark a close option, Ergas won the ball back and another dangerous counter was created.

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