Jornada 7 Review

Data from Fotmob, xG adjusted for plays with more than 1 shot. Photo from TV Azteca.

América (2.04 xG) 2 - 3 (0.83 xG) Necaxa

I haven’t seen much criticism of Luis Malagón, the presumed starter for the national team, but the truth is that he’s having a pretty bad 2024-25. Malagón’s performance levels partly explains América’s 8th placed finish last season, and why they lost this match.

In Necaxa’s first goal, Malagón was slow to adjust his positioning after a low cross, and took a very large step. This left him unbalanced when José Paradela shot. Nicolás Larcamón’s side deserve credit for their commitment to taking risks, and they had three attackers in the box when Kevin Rosero crossed in the 99th minute, but once again there are questions over Malagón’s foot movement, that led to the cross ending in the back of the net.

Considering the starting goalkeepers for each team (or the keeper with most minutes played) we can use the goals prevented metric to analyze their shot-stopping abilities. This metric uses the different between post-shot xG against (the chance that a given shot will end in a goal) and goals against. A player’s performance in this metric can fluctuate a lot, but Malagón ranks 14th in Clausura 2025, after ranking 16th during Apertura 2024. Across the whole season, he’s been one of Liga MX’s worst keepers.

Tijuana (2.22 xG) 1 - 2 (0.97 xG) Juárez

At times, it’s important to stay calm after a defeat. This looks like another disappointing Tijuana loss, and that they’re probably destined to end the season near the bottom of the table. However, Xolos played a lot better against Juárez and taking into account the quality of their chances, would win this match more or less 75% of the time.

Juan Carlos Osorio went back to using natural wingers, with Efraín Álvarez extremely dangerous on the right, and more technical players like Gilberto Mora and Iván Tona between the lines, rather than rotating defenders to occupy positions like “number 10s”. Alejandro Gómez played closer to Unai Bilbao and Jackson Porozo to better defend in transition and Miguel Ortega showed his quality in build-up on his Xolos debut. If Tijuana can maintain this performance level, their next two games against Puebla and Pumas are certainly winnable.

Mazatlán (2.46 xG) 1 - 1 (0.53 xG) Santos Laguna

Rounding-off the Friday of “unjust” results (or unlikely results given the xG of the game) was the draw between Mazatlán and Santos. It’s been a tournament of slightly weird results for Víctor Manuel Vucetich’s side, winning against Toluca and Puebla despite only managing 9 shots across both matches, but only coming away with just a point from by far their best attacking performance.

Mazatlán missed some good chances, but Rodolfo Pizarro almost scored the winner in the 102nd minute. Carlos Acevedo produced an impressive save though, stopping Pizarro’s header on the goal-line.

Atlas (1.47 xG) 3 - 2 (0.40 xG) Puebla

Gonzalo Pineda won his first Atlas game in remarkable fashion, with two goals in second-half added time. Diego González and Uros Djurdjevic scored the goals, both from well-placed shots.

Jorge Guzmán, who’s returned from a loan spell in Canada, made an impact from the bench, completing all of his passes apart from a pair of crosses, and completing three of three dribble attempts. Guzmán also made the assist for González’s goal (the purple line).

Tigres UANL (1.26 xG) 2 - 1 (0.91 xG) Cruz Azul

Diego Lainez is becoming one of the most important players for Veljko Paunovic’s system, and we saw why in this game. Lainez is a hard-working and effective winger out of possession and showed his intensity in both the high press (winning a ball off Kevin Mier) and to help defend in lower blocks. Also, he showed a part of his game that hasn’t been seen too often with Tigres, carrying the ball inside before finishing into the bottom corner.

Once again, Cruz Azul couldn’t create enough danger from their crosses into the box (6 successful from 32 attempts). This has been a problem all season long, with their cross success dropping to 19% in Clausura 2025 (it was above 26% in Apertura 2024). Part of La Máquina’s low success rate is due to their cross zones, with many coming from far outside the box, where opponents have more time to adjust and attack the ball. The heat map shows the high number of unsuccessful crosses from far outside the box, with few successful crosses from these zones.

Toluca (1.01 xG) 2 - 1 (0.35 xG) Guadalajara

It seems like a deserved win for Toluca when looking at the xG, but it’s important to mention a couple of highly dangerous situations in the first-half that didn’t contribute to Chivas’ xG, both in counter-attacks. Alan Pulido scored in the 19th minute and, with a bit of luck going Toluca’s way, the goal was disallowed. Just 8 minutes later, Luis Romo wasn’t clinical enough in a 1vs1, following a Toluca corner.

Toluca had the majority of the possession (59%) and the shots (16 versus 8) but shot more from outside the box. Alexis Vega, as usual, shot four times from distance, but actually scored one, which we don’t see too often. Afterwards, Hugo Camberos scored his first goal, and first own goal, in Liga MX, and Toluca won for the second consecutive time at home.

Querétaro (0.49 xG) 2 - 4 (2.26 xG) Monterrey

A week ago, Los Rayados lost against Juárez due to letting-in two goals from corners. On Sunday, the tables turned as two corner goals in the first 11 minutes were crucial in Monterrey’s first away win.

Set-pieces can be very important in tight matches with few opportunities, or if a team’s attack isn’t creating so much, and after taking the two goal advantage, it was always going to be a huge ask for Querétaro. Monterrey took advantage of second balls to score both goals from corners. Tecatito Corona finished after a header came back off the post, with Querétaro’s defenders seemingly lacking concentration in the moment, whilst Ricardo Chávez arrived unmarked, in-front of Querétaro’s zonal markers, to score after a touch at the near-post.

Atlético San Luis (1.79 xG) 1 - 2 (1.46 xG) León

Two James Rodríguez assists in the match, and the Colombian was a key factor in and out of possession for León. San Luis looked to exploit the lack of intensity and effectiveness from León’s first defensive line (James and Jhonder Cádiz), regularly finding a free man to start their ball progression.

Andrés Guardado also suffered in the defensive phase, especially when he jumped to press because he didn’t have the speed to recover his positioning. There’s a good example from the second-half. Guardado jumps onto Rodrigo Dourado but James isn’t connected to the situation, and therefore a San Luis centre-back is totally free.

With Guardado out of position and James not able to help, San Luis have space to progress the ball.

And the domino effect continues, Mauricio Isaías isn’t well positioned to protect more dangerous space behind him (perhaps he jumps due to a lack of protection in-front) and Vitinho is able to get in-behind, ending in a 1vs1 chance.

Eduardo Berizzo still has work to do to improve his side defensively, and it seems like Guardado and James on the pitch together isn’t the best option. La Fiera improved considerably in the final minutes, when Guardado was subbed-off.

Pachuca (1.80 xG) 2 - 1 (0.36 xG) Pumas UNAM

This was a perfect storm for Pumas. An attack that isn’t creating much to begin with, then losing their most dangerous attacking threat in the first-half, combined with their keeper gifting easy goals for the opponent.

Pablo Lara, the 19-year-old, has made some notable saves, but has also cost his team at times. I thought the Querétaro match would be his last as a starter, but Lara has remained first-choice and was at fault for both Pachuca goals. They weren’t easy situations to defend, but Lara made errors when coming off his line. In both occasions, he made Jhon Kennedy’s decision much easier, and he was twice able to get around Lara and score open goals.

The 5 keepers worst-performing goalkeepers in the goals prevented metric in 2024-25, as a percentage of their xG post-shot against, starting with the worst performer

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