Liga MX Femenil: Mid-season report

Data from Sofascore. Photo from Récord.

Thought: It’s important to use xG to cut through the noise of results and understand how a team is performing, however, a certain amount of games are required to improve precision, and it’s important to consider the fixture list in leagues with great disparity, such as Liga MX Femenil.

We’re only in the middle of February, but have already passed the middle of the Clausura 2025 season in Liga MX Femenil. Therefore, it’s a good moment to analyze the state of the league and how each team is performing. Also, historical studies have shown that there’s a fairly strong confidence level, and precision of future predictions, when analyzing xG after 8-to-9 games.

The scatter chart compares the team’s xG differences against their goal differences (both adjusted per game), with the best performing teams positioned towards the top-right of the graphic. The coloured points show the difficulty levels of their fixture lists so far (using their xG differences), teams in green have had easier matches so far.

After a difficult start to 2024-25, Club América has been the best team in Liga MX Femenil for the past few months. Their xG difference per game in Clausura 2025 is a remarkable +2.87 per game, more than 1.5 better than the second-best placed team, Tigres. In other words, in an average América game this season, the expectation is that they’ll win by three goals. Las Águilas still have challenges against Tigres, Chivas and Juárez, but are without doubt the title favourites.

You can read more about América Femenil’s attack in this article

After América, there’s a group of teams with fairly similar xG differences; Tigres, Chivas, Pachuca, Juárez and Pumas. Within this group, Pachuca have had the best results compared to expectations. The league leader has scored 13 goals more than their xG created, and Charlyn Corral has been a major part of this overperformance, with 14 goals scored from just 6.53 xG. On the other hand, we find Juárez, who’ve scored fewer goals, and let-in more goals, than their xG suggests they should have. Las Bravas have had problems in goal this season, with three different keepers starting in at least two matches.

The other two teams with positive xG differences are Monterrey, the disappointment of the season so far, and Cruz Azul, a surprise package. Helped by signings from Pumas, Aerial Chavarín and Deneisha Blakcwood, La Máquina have been competitive in every match, and will hope to earn more points in their final eight games. Cruz Azul are only going to face two sides that are currently in a liguilla spot.

Tijuana, León, Atlas, San Luis and Toluca have underlying numbers slightly worse than the Liga MX Femenil average. Las Xolas, after losing key players like Aisha Solórzano and Daniela Espinosa, are in a liguilla spot for now, and performance levels from goalkeeper Alexa Madueño have been an important factor. Tijuana have received 4.5 less goals than their xG.

The final positions in the xG table are occupied by Santos Laguna, Puebla, Querétaro, Necaxa and Mazatlán. Querétaro’s performances haven’t been quite as good as their results, and they probably won’t continue to fight for a liguilla place. Mazatlán have really struggled this season, but have faced a very difficult schedule, and still are yet to face their most important fixtures against; Puebla, Santos and Necaxa.

We can better understand team performances by visualizing xG creation for and against, to analyze attacking and defensive levels.

América distance themselves from the rest of the league with their attacking quality, and actually Chivas have the best defensive record after nine matches. Pumas have impressed going forwards, particularly 10-goal Stephanie Ribeiro, and their xG created isn’t far off the level of Tigres. Meanwhile, Mazatlán have really suffered defensively, at 3 xG conceded per game, whilst Santos aren’t far off league average xG against, despite being positioned near the bottom of the table.

Monterrey have to improve out of possession if they’re going to compete for another league title, and Rebeca Bernal’s recent exit has made the challenge even bigger for Las Rayadas. On the other hand, San Luis, who won four of their first five matches, rank above Monterrey, and league average, for xG against, but will have to create more with the ball to reach the top-eight.

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