Liga MX: Mid-season report

Data from fotmob, Wyscout and Golstats. Photo from Fieramanía.

Thought: It’s important to use xG to remove the statistical noise of results, and also analyze play styles to understand how a team is performing.

We’ve already passed the mid-way point in the Clausura 2025 season. Therefore, it’s a good moment to analyze the state of the tournament and team performance levels, using expected goals (xG). Also, historical studies have shown that there’s a fairly strong confidence level, and precision of future predictions, when analyzing xG after 8-to-9 games.

The table is ordered by the xG difference of each team, and shows the xG and goal differences per game, as well as the xG values for and against.

xG analysis after nine matches in Clausura 2025, removing penalties

Green = Better ranking. Red = Worse ranking.

Club América have clearly been the strongest performer this season, and their xG difference is almost as large as twice second placed Toluca. Their attack has been particularly effective, with more than two expected goals created per game. Toluca have a similar goal difference to América, after winning 4-0 and 5-0 in their previous games. Los Diablos Rojos have been the most efficient team at converting their chances, and still have the third most creative attack in the league, having improved their attacking threat after switching to a 4-4-2. Monterrey have a similar xG difference to Toluca, but with Esteban Andrada and Luis Cárdenas receiving more goals than their xG, Los Rayados only have a +0.22 goal difference per game and sit ninth in the table.

Cruz Azul, Pachuca, Guadalajara and Necaxa have similar xG differences, between +0.32 and +0.44 per game. Chivas and Necaxa have had contrasting fortunes, in different play styles. Nicolás Larcamón’s side take more risks, with an intense press and direct transitions. Their attack is the second best in the league, with a defensive performance below average, however, Ezequiel Unsaín has been one of the most effective goalkeepers in the season so far. Tala Rangel hasn’t been as effective, and that partly explains Chivas’ negative goal difference, although the attack also hasn’t created too much.

Necaxa and Tijuana are the only teams with an above average attacking output, and below average defensive performance.

Tigres is another team that’s lacked attacking output this season, with Veljko Paunovic’s side only eighth on the xG table. However, they do rank above league leaders León. La Fiera have scored above their xG, and have had variance go their way, winning tight matches by one goal and scoring frequently in the first minutes. There’s an argument that León haven’t needed to attack so much, after scoring early goals (seven goals in the first 15 minutes), and that the draw versus América showed their ability to comeback after a poor start. However, it’s unlikely that they’ll keep winning so many matches by a single goal. All of their victories have come from 2-1 or 1-0 score lines.

Pumas were the first team to change their head coach this season, and whilst goalkeeper problems have impacted results, their negative underlying numbers are a disappointment, after finishing Apertura 2024 with the second-best xG difference. Mazatlán, Atlas and Puebla also have negative differences, despite showing above average defensive records.

Tijuana are the league’s worst defense, and their problems in transitions and on the left-side have been constants throughout the season.

Like León, Juárez have won all of their games by a single goal. Los Bravos have also seen variance go their away in low-chance matches, but their results don’t seem sustainable. The bottom of the xG table is occupied by Santos Laguna, Querétaro and Atlético San Luis. It’s a surprise to see San Luis in last place, following an impressive Apertura 2024.

Attacking transitions

Toluca, Necaxa and América are the league’s best attacks, and the most effective teams in attacking transition, creating around 1.4 counter-attacks per game and more than 4 shots following recoveries in the opposing half. Monterrey, who’ve improved their press this season, also generated more than 4 chances per game after a high recovery.

León, Juárez and Mazatlán aren’t very intense or effective at pressing opponents high up the pitch, and occupy three of the bottom four places for the PPDA metric, but do create dangerous counter-attacks. On the other side, Pumas and Querétaro haven’t created much in attacking transitions.

Styles of play

The next scatter plot shows each team’s play style. I’ve used a machine learning technique, principal component analysis, to reduce various metrics into just two numbers and visualize general styles of play.

There are four play styles shown, taking into account ideas in possession (patient or vertical) and out of possession (pressure or passive block).

This analysis doesn’t take into account how teams and coaches can adjust and change their approach in different matches. Generally, the teams located closer to the extreme points on the graph change less and have more specific styles.

The two teams with best xG differences, América and Toluca, have shown similar play styles. Patience to build-up and a more passive block. However, we’ve already seen that both teams can choose their moments to press with more intensity, and create shots following high recoveries.

León and Guadalajara, who play more direct football, are the only teams on the left-side of the graphic with positive xG differences this season. The majority of the stronger sides play with more patience on the ball and pressure in the defensive phase, attempting to control their matches, the possession and territory. However, Tijuana haven’t had much success with this style.

Atlas under Gonzalo Pineda is the closest team to the pressure and vertical idea, however, with Pachuca playing less direct football and a little bit more passive in defense, there isn’t currently a Liga MX team that are really defined by that philosophy.

Where do teams build-up their attacks?

With data from Golstats, I’ve created a visualization to see where teams tend to have more possession. The heat maps are divided into 16 zones (4×4) and the color in each zone refers to the amount of passes by each team, as a percentage of all of their passes and compared with other teams in Liga MX. I’ve controlled pass quantity as a percentage of all passes to remove the impact of a team having a high or low amount of possession.

Red zones = More passes as a %. Blue zones = Fewer passes as a %.

América have continued the trend from recent seasons, building-up more on the left, with Álvaro Fidalgo. Juárez are another team that tend to attack more through the left-side, but show less central progression than Las Águilas. On the other hand, Monterrey focus attacks through Sergio Canales, on the right-side.

Some high possession teams, like Tijuana and Toluca, tend to dominate the centre of the pitch, helped by using inverted full-backs (in the case of Xolos) and wingers that drift inside (Toluca). Meanwhile, Puebla, the team with lowest average possession this season, tend to avoid playing through the centre.

Furthermore, we can visualize how some teams have been more effective at progressing the ball into the opposing penalty area, such as Necaxa and Pachuca, as well as the teams that have failed to consistently move the ball forwards (or recover the ball in high positions). Atlas have often attempted to build-up from deep on the left-side, but frequently aren’t able to leave that zone, whilst Pumas have dominated the centre of the pitch, but generate little ball progression into dangerous, attacking areas.

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