Lucas Ocampos: A disappointing season or bad signing?

Data from Fotmob, Wyscout and FBRef, photo from Goal.com.

Lucas Ocampos might be the personification of this Rayados side. High reputation, high salary, high expectations, but a disappointing performance level.

Rayados will have their final opportunity to make liguilla next Sunday, after key errors in the final minutes against Pachuca led to a 2-1 defeat. Whilst Ocampos didn’t make any of the most important mistake, the Argentine was part of the Monterrey collapse. Ocampos lost the ball eight times after coming on in the 71st minute, and in the final chance they had to draw the match, a four vs three counter-attack, Lucas ended-up shooting widely off-target.

A disappointing tournament

Reports suggest that Rayados spent more than $8m to sign Ocampos from Sevilla, one of the biggest investments in the history of Mexican football. Paying such a large amount for a 30 year-old is always a risk, considering that the player may not continue at a high level for many years into the future, and therefore it’s necessary to obtain instant results.

The concept analysis, displaying Ocampos’ percentile rank versus other attacking-midfielders in 2024-25, shows that he hasn’t reached anywhere near expectations. Overall, Ocampos doesn’t even hit league average.

Worse ranking. Better ranking.

With 0.36 goals and assists p90, and 0.32 xG + xA p90, Ocampos ranks below league average in his attacking output, despite playing in the fourth best attack during 2024-25. Without counting his penalty, Lucas has scored only once for Rayados, in a quarter-final against Pumas. Three of his four assists during Apertura 2024 came in a single match versus Atlas. Therefore, Ocampos hasn’t managed a goal or assist in 15 of his 18 matches as a starter.

Removing his name, history, and value, there aren’t any arguments that Ocampos should be playing for Rayados.

The risk of signing an older winger

It’s crucial that teams take into account the impact of age when scouting and analyzing players. In the case of wingers and attacking-midfielders, it’s especially important that teams are careful when making decisions, and that they don’t over-rate a player’s history.

Peak age can be younger for this position than others. For example, a study in The Athletic in 2021 found peak age to be between 25 and 27 for Premier League attacking-midfielders.

Whilst some deeper-lying midfielders can prolong their careers (Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Andrea Pirlo), as passing ability can peak later, the drop in physicality can have a major impact on wingers.

One way of visualizing the impact of age is by looking at the number of dribbles completed. There are fluctuations overall, but dribble numbers tend to drop as players get older.

Other factors, such as acceleration and off-ball movement are also impacted by age.

A lack of analysis from Rayados?

Teams have to expect a drop in productivity from a 30 year-old winger, and especially in the case of Ocampos. In his best moments, the Argentine stood-out for his goal-scoring ability, box arrivals, and dribbles. He’s never been a highly creative player, with excellent passing ability, and has only managed more than four assists in one season during his career.

A more creative, and better passing winger, Jesús “Tecatito” Corona, has had a greater impact this season, despite being 32 years-old. Sergio Canales has also continued to be a major contributor, largely thanks to his creativity and passing ability. Neither player relies on being able to get in-behind defenses, which requires higher levels of physicality and pace.

Moreover, Ocampos’ decline was already clear to see, by analyzing his output in La Liga. Following the best season of his career (14 goals and three assists for Sevilla in 2019-20), Lucas’ xG has consistently dropped, with a major fall occurring after 2021-22.

Arriving in Liga MX has given Ocampos more space and opportunities to dribble, and those numbers have increased significantly (although his 1vs1 success is under 45%). However, it isn’t a major surprise that his xG hasn’t come close to his greatest seasons. Liga MX is weaker than La Liga, but the difference isn’t so huge, in order to turn a below-average player into a stand-out one, especially at his age.

Lucas Ocampos’ first Liga MX season has been a huge disappointment, but he has followed the trends of performance levels throughout his career, and of players of a similar age, so this could have been predicted. Whilst avoiding injuries could help Ocampos to improve next season, his age may lead to even further decline. Rayados’ investment hasn’t been effective, and they’re now stuck with Ocampos, who according to transfermrkt.com still has two years left on his contract. Signing Ocampos could limit their options in the future, and it seems that Rayados could have better analyzed the player and his current abilities, before making the decision.

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