Parity in Liga MX has reduced

Photo from Grada.

Thought: The gap between the strongest sides in Liga MX, both on the pitch and financially, has gotten bigger. Smaller teams need to accept this, and find intelligent strategies and longer-term plans if they are to bridge this gap.

Ten years ago, in the final jornada of Clausura 2015, Tigres played out a goal-less draw with Toluca, which secured first place at the end of the regular season. But this Tigres wasn’t a particularly dominant side. They only won 29 points, and lost in the quarter-finals, to eventual winners Santos Laguna. With just 29 points, Tigres would only have finished in seventh place in four of the previous five seasons, with a need to go through play-in/reclassification before liguilla.

Parity in Liga MX has reduced. In 17 match tournaments, Clausura 2023 was the first season with six teams winning 30 points or more. It’s happened three more times in the next four seasons.

On the other side of the table, there just ten cases of teams earning under ten points since Apertura 2004. Five of those cases have come in the previous six tournaments. Clausura 2025 was the first season to contain two teams finishing with less than ten points, Santos Laguna with seven, and Puebla on nine.

We can also use a statistical method called standard deviation (against the mean average) to analyze the parity and distribution of points in Liga MX. The five season moving average shows that the deviation in points have increased in recent seasons.

An impact of this change in parity is that teams now have to earn more points to reach fourth place, which gives an advantage in the first round of liguilla (only a draw is needed to go through).

So there’s less parity in Liga MX, but what may have caused this change?

Increasing financial inequality

Across many global leagues, we’ve seen financial disparity increase between teams, and some teams dominating their leagues to an extent that’s never been seen before. Bayern Munich won 11 consecutive Bundesliga’s, PSG have finished first in 11 of the last 13 Ligue 1 seasons, whilst Manchester City had a run of wining six Premier League titles in seven years.

Many factors impact a team’s earnings and the distribution of wealth in football, and certain concepts have led to increased inequality. Globalization has increased the potential earnings through marketing and merchandise, TV rights have increased unevenly, whilst larger amounts of prize money have helped the bigger, more successful sides.

Specifically in Liga MX, fans in the USA can play a important role. The largest teams, with significant fanbases north of the border, have been able to attract large attendances to money-making friendlies. This isn’t possible for the smaller sides.

Recent seasons in Liga MX has also seen Toluca making large investments, turning a “financial big four” (Tigres, Monterrey, América, Cruz Azul) into a big five. At least three of those teams have finished in the top four places during the previous five tournaments.

Money spent of salaries is a rather good predictor of results on the pitch. There’s no reliable public information regarding Liga MX salaries, but we can analyze player values to get an idea of financial distribution across Mexican football. The source Transfermrkt, isn’t perfect, but gives an idea.

The graphic shows average player value, per year, for the five most valuable teams and the five less valuable teams. To summarize, the gap between the “rich” and the “poor”, in Liga MX, has grown (by about 50%). Therefore, it isn’t a great surprise to see a larger gap in the number of points won.

Has the removal of relegation had an impact?

Taking away promotion and relegation has been one of the most important changes in Liga MX, and this may have impacted the level of the bottom of the league.

Teams are now protected, knowing that finishing last in the co-efficient table doesn’t lead to relegation. There are fewer incentives to avoid a disastrous season, and it isn’t possible for a new team, with more intelligent ideas or more investment, to enter the league and raise the level (compared with the side that was relegated).

Also, promotion and relegation can be seen as a method of distributing playing talent within a country. As long as the difference between the first and second divisions isn’t too large, teams that earn promotion will contain players that have stood-out in their league, and are deserving of an opportunity in Liga MX.

Teams that have finish in last place in the co-efficient table, since relegation was removed.

Compared to other top divisions across world football, Liga MX still has a lot of parity. Short seasons and the play-off system build parity into the league, but there are also a good number of historic and wealthy clubs across Mexico. According to some bookmakers, five teams have a 10% chance, or better, of winning the title this season.

However, teams at the top of the league have started to leave teams at the bottom behind, and the challenge of cutting that gap has become more difficult given the financial disparities.

Smaller Liga MX sides have to accept this new reality, and plan accordingly. One transfer window or a managerial change isn’t enough to turn a bad team into a good team. Sides with an economic disadvantage need to make consistent, smart decisions, that compound over time, if they are to compete near the top of Liga MX.

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