Érick Espinosa: The Venados striker showing great potential

The xG per 90 leader in the Liga de Expansión is only 19 years old

Author

Tom Harrison
March 21, 2025

Data from Golstats and Wyscout. Photo from TV Azteca Yucatán.

Thought: By analyzing historic cases of players that have moved between two leagues, we can predict adaptation and future performances if a transfer were to take place.

The plan to create the Liga de Expansión as a way of helping the development of young Mexicans isn’t working. Different factors have had an impact, like the disappearance of some teams and the change in age limit in the Liga MX academies (U20 became U23), and the result is that only seven players under 21 have played more than 600 minutes during 2024-25. Of those seven, two aren’t Mexican, and another is Hugo Camberos, who’s already a regular starter with Chivas. 15 Mexicans under 21 years old have reached 600 minutes in Liga MX during 2024-25.

A Liga MX team looking for young talent in the Expansión would have limited options, but there is one player that stands-out. Érick Espinosa isn’t just the youngest striker to have played more than 600 minutes, but he’s also the xG leader per game.

Who is Érick Espinosa?

After scoring 13 goals in 24 Tercera División games during 2023-24, Espinosa was handed game time with the Venados first team. The left-footed striker has played 767 minutes in the Liga de Expansión, scoring three goals, around two less than his xG.

We can analyze his general play with various striker-specific game concepts. The concept analysis combines a selection of metrics to create a simple way of understanding a player’s style and their strengths and weaknesses.

Instead of presenting his rankings during the Expansión this season, I’ve created predictions of how he could perform in Liga MX. The predictions take into account his rankings in the Expansión, and how strikers that have moved between the leagues historically have adapted. The adaption tends to be different for each concept.

It’s difficult to create these types of predictions, and they don’t take into account the play style of his current team and possible future side. Therefore, I’ll present a confidence interval for each concept, rather than just a specific prediction.

A drop in his xG and goal generation is to be expected when stepping-up to Liga MX, however, it’s likely that Espinosa will maintain a performance level close to or better than league average in the concept. Considerably better than the youngest strikers in Liga MX with more than 600 minutes played; Tahiel Jiménez and Yan Phillipe.

Espinosa’s positioning and movement stands-out when watching back his shots. He recognizes situations to make runs in-behind a defense, frequently positions himself between two centre-backs or on the blindside of his closest marker, looking for space in the box, and for most of the time stays in the centre of the pitch.

His shot heat map shows the effectiveness of his movement. Almost all of Érick’s shots have come from the width of the six-yard box, inside or very close to the penalty area. Espinosa creates dangerous situations with his movement and makes good decisions in the final third, attempting few shots from range. His xG per shot is an impressive 0.19.

This is a good example of his types of movements, and also why his xG will likely drop in Liga MX. Aware of a possible cross/cut-back, Espinosa makes his run, positioned between the centre-backs to make it harder to mark him.

The centre-back in-front stops, and the one behind doesn’t follow the run, so Érick is unmarked in a very dangerous position. He probably wouldn’t be able to exploit such poor marking in Liga MX, but Espinosa will also be able to take advantage of better delivery. The pass was played behind Érick, and therefore he couldn’t finish effectively.

Finishing is Espinosa’s main weakness, and it’s also a concept that’s historically dropped significantly when a striker adapts to Liga MX after playing in the Expansión. Statistically, Espinosa has lost a lot of value with his finishing ability, and the eye test shows weaknesses in his technical ability and biomechanics whilst shooting. At times, his shots have been inaccurate due to a lack of balance or poor follow-through after striking the ball.

However, at just 19 year old, Érick has time to develop this aspect of his game, and with specific training sessions and a coach that understands the technical concepts of shooting, it’s shouldn’t be too difficult to improve. There aren’t many strikers across the world that continue scoring under their xG for their whole career.

Espinosa can also improve other concepts of his game. He’s not going to become a target striker that dominates in the air given his height (176cm according to the league website) but he could improve his hold-up play by developing upper-body strength and better ball control. Ball retention could also increase with improved decisions when he receives with his back to goal. Too often, Espinosa attempts very difficult decisions, for example trying to turn a defender instead of playing a simple pass to a teammate in-front of him. More game time and experience should help to refine his decision making in these situations.

Finally, his intensity and effectiveness out of possession, to help the high press and generate turnovers, is a strength. This is quite normal for a young striker, given their energy and desire to make an impression. However, his defensive work is still a concept that could help plenty of teams.

The sample size to analyze Érick Espinosa’s game isn’t too large and therefore we can’t yet have too much confidence that he’ll maintain this level of production, but his attacking output so far has been highly impressive for a 19 year old striker. Whilst he still has much to develop, Espinosa’s performances should be enough to attract interest from many Liga MX clubs.

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