There's too many long shots in Liga MX

Data from fbref.com and fotmob. Photo from 90thmin.com

Thought: In general, Liga MX teams and players can improve their decision making in the final third and arrive in more dangerous positions before attempting a shot. América have shown how successful a team can be with a more patient idea in attack.

In recent years, perhaps influenced by data analysis in football and the creation of xG models, shot distance (the distance between the shot and the goal) has dropped on average.

The best teams in the world now show more patience in the final third, looking to create shots from closer to the opponent’s goal, where there’s a higher chance that they’ll score.

This graphic, from StatsBomb, uses a basic xG model to show the impact of shot distance on goal probability. There are two pitch maps, the map on the left shows goal probability for shots attempted with either foot, and on the right displays the same concept for headers. To summarize, goal probability is only above 10% if the shot comes from inside the box and in the center of the pitch, more or less within the width of the 6-yard-box. Shots from distance normally have an xG values of under 0.05. Also, headers are much harder to score from.

Liga MX vs other leagues

Liga MX doesn’t show the same trend as some other leagues. Average shot distance in Mexico continues to be rather high, and the xG per shot is rather low. Players and teams can improve their decision making in the final third to improve attacking efficiency and productivity.

xG per shot analyses the goal probability, on average, of every shot that a team or player attempts.

This graphic shows the differences between shots in Liga MX, the “big five” European legues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France) and MLS. The visualization compares xG per shot and average shot distance, and contains three zones; Liga MX, big five European leagues, MLS. Each team in their respective league is placed inside the specific zone.

Liga MX teams shoot from further out than the average within this data set. Few teams in Europe or MLS show similar shooting tendencies and in general they shoot from more dangerous positions.

The xG per shot shows, statistically, the impact of shooting from different zones. The best performing teams in the metric have an average xG per shot of 0.14, twice as big as the teams with the lowest xG per shot; Puebla and Getafe. Therefore, on average, Puebla (0.07 xG per shot) has to generate twice the amount of shots as Brentford (0.14 xG per shot) to score the same number of goals.

América have the highest xG per shot in Liga MX across 2024-25 (0.11 xG). Last week, I wrote about the tactical ideas behind the most efficient attack in Mexico. The tricampeón have shown clear strategies in order to progress the ball into higher xG positions.

We can better understand the trends across different leagues by calculating averages. This table shows average xG per shot and shot distance of the leagues analyzed.

Players that regularly shoot from lower quality positions

The scatter plot shows players with a minimum of 900 minutes and two shots per game during 2024-25. I’ve highlighted the players with the lowest xG per shot figures. Not only do Mexican players appear, but also signings from South America and Europe.

Three Rayados players shoot frequently from distance, and this decision making trend partly explains their low productivity in the final third. Monterrey have shown the opposite trend to América in 2024-25, ranking first for final third entries, but only 8th in xG per game.

However, it seems that Sergio Canales has the talent to consistently score from outside the box and add value through his decision making. The Spaniard has scored more than 10% of his shots from distance with Monterrey, although he likely won’t keep up this rate of scoring over the longer-term.

It’s important that teams analyze their most and least effective shooters from distance, perhaps adding data from training to create a larger sample size. There are moments when a shot from outside the box is the best decision, especially if the opponent is in a compact low block and there isn’t any space to move the ball into the box.

In these moments, teams should create situations so that their best long-range shooters are the ones that attempt the shots, to maximise goal probability. Also, teams have to reduce the number of shots from players that have shown little efficiency. For example, Tijuana and Toluca have to work on Kevin Castañeda’s and Alexis Vega’s decision making.

Data from the previous four complete seasons (Apertura and Clausura)

Especially because both Castañeda and Vega have the passing ability to progress the ball into the box, move possession into higher xG positions and improve the productivity of their team in attack.

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