What went wrong for Gustavo Lema?

Data from Fotmob, Wyscout, Sofascore and Golstats. Photo from Récord.

Thought: Changing a head coach is unlikely to solve all of a team’s problems.

After two and a half tournaments, Pumas have taken the decision to change their head coach. Los Universitarios, that occupy 12th place in the table, ended Gustavo Lema’s spell in charge following the 4-2 defeat to Tijuana.

The decision shows the level of expectations at Pumas, and their drop-off after ending last season in fourth place. So what went wrong?

A good place to begin analyzing a team’s fluctuation in performance levels is with an xG moving average. A moving average takes into account the previous x matches (in this case 8, almost half a season) to visualize team trends, without putting too much weight into a specific game.

The graphic shows their up-and-down performances under Lema. He took over as head coach with the club in an excellent situation, and during the Brazilian’s first season, their underlying numbers dropped significantly. A positive xG difference (in green) became a negative difference (in red).

Apertura 2024 was a lot better for Lema and Pumas, maintaining an above average attacking output, with drastic improvements in the defensive performances.

But, reflecting his first season, the situation has changed in Clausura 2025, and his xG difference is once again negative.

The goalkeeper situation has multiplied Pumas’ defensive problems, having received more goals than their xG against. Pablo Lara, the 19-year-old, has suffered, especially when he has to leave his defensive line and defend space behind the defensive line. This is an important concept for teams that want to press high and compact the space with a high defensive line. Winter addition Alex Padilla has only played two league matches as a starter, and therefore we can’t make sweeping judgements about his quality, but his poor performances so far have contributed to the defeats.

It’s no clear exactly what happened with Julio González and Gil Alcalá, and who took the decision to remove both keepers from the squad, but Pumas have undoubtably been weaker without Julio. In recent seasons, he’s been one of the best goalkeepers at coming off his line, to intercept passes and crosses, and avoid opponents from creating shots.

Concept analysis for Julio González, percentile ranks vs other Liga MX goalkeepers 

Injuries have also impacted results. Pumas have been without two of their three starting centre-backs (Lisandro Magallán and Nathan Silva) in the last three matches, impacting their defensive effectiveness. Jorge Ruvalcaba, their most threatening wide attacker after the sale of César Huerta, has also missed the previous two matches, and striker Guillermo Martínez is currently injured. Moreover, Leo Suárez was an important investment, but hasn’t played since July.

Darker zone = More successful dribbles per match in the zone

Tactically, the high press is an important concept to analyze. By using the PPDA metric (permitted passes per defensive action), we can observe more fluctuations in Pumas’ performance levels. Lema’s team weren’t an effective pressing team in Clausura 2024, but showed great intensity at the start of Apertura 2024.

However, their PPDA dropped afterwards and continues to rank below league average.

This trend line is inverted, as a lower PPDA shows a more intense high press.

High pressing doesn’t just impact the defense, but also attacking production. Lema had created one of the best teams in attacking transitions. Shots following opposition half recoveries increased in his first season and his side ended Apertura 2024 second in the metric. Furthermore, only three teams generated more counter-attacks than Pumas last season.

This season, shots post high recoveries have dropped significantly, and no team has created fewer counter-attacks than Pumas. Attacking transitions were a great strength, but have become a considerable weakness.

Adelberto Carrasquilla is the only Pumas played to rank within the top 50 for xA (expected assists) this season. This squad lacks creativity, especially after the sale of Huera. Piero Quispe is effective at retaining the ball and helping in build-up, but doesn’t generate many passes into the box, whilst midfielders Ulises Rivas and Rodrigo López can arrive into the box with off-ball runs, but don’t have the passing ability or vision to create.

To confound their issues in attack, Pumas lack balance in their attacking production. The majority of their chance come from the left-wing, with little attacking output from right-wing-back Pablo Bennevendo. The academy product is a more defensive full-back, but has had to play at wing-back with Lema insisting in a back-3/5.

There’s a variety of factors in Pumas’ drop-off this season. The squad building is an important factor, leaving the team lacking creativity and without a threat from the right flank. Injuries are also are crucial part of the short-term results and Pumas will likely improve with Magallán and Nathan in the defensive line, and Ruvalcaba occupying Huerta’s role. However, and whilst we don’t know exactly how Gustavo Lema was working, the Brazilian couldn’t maintain key concepts in their play style or find solutions to the problems faced this season.

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