Why Elías Montiel is a unique talent in Mexican football

And the importance of progressive passes

Author

Tom Harrison
January 28, 2025

Raw data from Wyscout. Photo from Club Pachuca.

Thought: There are few young midfielders that have an above average impact in ball progression

Much of the advances in football data analysis has focused on creating values for actions. xG is the most famous metric, which generates a goal probability value for every shot, to be able to analyse the quality of chances and see if a team or player’s performance levels are repeatable or not. After xG, there’s been attempts to value every action on the pitch, with models such as xT (expected threat), PV (possession value) and OBV (on-ball value).

Those models analyse the impact of moving the ball from one zone of the pitch to another, or of recovering possession. The metrics are generated by working out the goal probability change in the next X actions or X seconds.

They can help us to analyse a player’s impact beyond just their shots or key passes, but there is an issue. Studies behind the metrics and surrounding the concept of valuing zones have shown that the majority of the pitch has very little “value”. For example, this graphic shows the xT (or value) on average of different pitch zones. Outside of the final 4th, every zone has a value of just 0.01 or 0.02.

The value of each pitch zone, according to Karun Singh’s xT model

As a result, players that do the majority of their work in midfield often don’t stand-out too much in these models. A player completing a pass from their own half into the final 3rd may just add 0.01 xT. However, we can’t ignore this part of the pitch.

There’s a correlation between a team’s final 3rd progressions per match and their xG created, and a 2024 scientific study (Deb, Fernández-Navarro, Jarman & McRobert) showed the importance of progressive passes. They found that those types of passes increase the likelihood of a shot being created later on in the possession than “normal” passes.

Therefore, whilst in some aspects of analysis it’s important to focus on more advanced models and values rather than just counting actions (for example, xG is better than shot quantity), the number of progressive passes per match is still an important analysis to conduct for midfielders.

By looking at progressive pass quantity, it’s clear that Elías Montiel is a unique talent. During the previous 7 years, Montiel is the only Mexican midfielder under 23 years old that has qualified above league average for progressive passes per match. And he’s done it in 2 separate seasons.

It’s normal for young midfielders to not have a major impact in ball progression. Before peak age, midfielders tend to receive fewer touches per game (limiting their impact in build-up) and concepts such as pass quality and reading of the game can improve with more match experience. This partly explains the long careers of midfielders such as Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Andrea Pirlo.

However, this scatter plot showing players from Europe’s “big 5” leagues (from the last year), shows that a lack of progressive passes from young players is more common in Mexico. Whilst more than 50% of young midfielders are below the average across the leagues, there are more cases of above average ball progressors.

Specifically, Elías Montiel has displayed an excellent ability to deliver accurate switches of play. These heat maps show the zones where Montiel most frequently hits switches, which also progress the ball into the final 3rd.

Montiel completes more switches of play towards the right-wing, which is normal for a right-footed player due to their open body shape towards this side, but Elías can also hit switches from right to left, creating variety and options in his methods of generating ball progression.

Not only does he stand-out for his passing quality, Montiel is also an effective ball carrier and shows high intensity out of possession, creating regular interceptions and recoveries in Guillermo Almada’s pressing style. At just 19 years old, Elías Montiel is a complete midfielder.

Montiel won the bronze ball at the Intercontinental Cup, played for the national team in the non-official friendlies versus Internacional and River Plate, and will surely be on many European scouting lists. Taking in count his impact in ball progression, which should still improve in the future, Montiel has the potential to be a key player for Mexico in future years.

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