Alexis Vega's best season

Data from Fotmob, Wyscout and Golstats. Photo from Récord.

Thought: Consistently getting into more dangerous positions is a key part of an attacking player improving their output.

After years of failing to reach his potential, Alexis Vega has exploded in 2025, with a remarkable goal contribution. With eight non-penalty goals and seven assists, Vega is averaging 1.32 goals generated per game. No one has finished a Liga MX season with more than one goal contribution (goals + assists) per game in the last eight Liga MX tournaments.

Is he outperforming his underlying numbers?

A player’s most productive tournaments normally come, in part, thanks to an over-performance versus the underlying numbers, and this has been the case with Vega in Clausura 2025. His 15 goals and assists come from an xG + xA of 7.77. Alexis has benefitted from quality finishing from his teammates (7 assists from 4.02 xA) and poor performances from opposition keepers.

However, Vega’s finishing quality has also been a factor in his goal production this season. Alexis has added almost two goals with the quality of his shots, when taking into account the difference between xG and post-shot xG, which considers final shot location in the model. His goal numbers are still significantly higher than his post-shot xG though.

Expected numbers. Actual numbers.

Therefore, we may be watching the best season of Vega’s career, as over-performing his underlying numbers to such an extent isn’t likely during future seasons. However, his expected values still rank around the best in the league, only Paulinho and Germán Berterame rank higher for xG + xA p90.

Arriving in better positions

Vega’s decision making has been a weakness throughout the majority of his career. In February, I wrote an analysis of attacking decision making across the league, making the argument that there are too many shots from long range in Liga MX. Vega was one of the stand-out players in my analysis, having scored just two goals from 134 long shots in the four years previous to the article.

Things have changed in the five matches since the article was written. Alexis scored from outside the box against Querétaro, but overall, Vega has shot from much closer to the goal. His xG per shot in his previous five matches is 0.16, much higher than his average of 0.07 in Chivas.

I’m not suggesting that there’s a correlation between the article and Vega’s shot locations, but it is an interesting coincidence, and has clearly improved his attacking output. With fewer shots overall, but more shots from high xG locations, Alexis has scored more.

Vega’s positioning has also been an important factor in his chance creation. Consistently arriving in the left-side of the penalty area has resulted in better shot and assist locations. The graphic below shows a group of similar assists, cut-backs and sideways passes from inside the box, creating high quality opportunities. Vega didn’t generate an assist from inside the box during Clausura 2023, his last Chivas season with more than 1,000 league minutes.

A more transitional Toluca

A player doesn’t just perform individually, and the collective context has also been a key factor in Vega’s improvement. Alexis is an explosive attacker, who can exploit spaces and transitional moments, and beat isolated defenders. For years, Vega had to play for more patient teams, that attempted to build attacks and didn’t create too many vertical transitions.

This has changed with the arrival of “Turco” Mohamed and his more direct ideas. During Clausura 2025, Toluca have been an extremely dangerous side in counter-attacks and after recovering the ball in the opposing half, and Vega has benefitted.

Better defensive work

Vega, Toluca’s captain, has also helped the collective effort and Turco’s style with increased work-rate out of possession. Alexis consistently lacked intensity during his spell with Chivas, but this has changed during Clausura 2025.

Compared with Clausura 2023, Vega has made more than twice as many tackles per game, winning a very high percentage of his defensive duels. Not only is he relying on his teammates to recover balls and start transitions, Vega is also generating his own turnovers.

Alexis Vega’s best season has come from a combination of factors on and off the pitch, and it isn’t likely that his over-performance against the underlying numbers will be continued in the future. However, analyzing the development of his attacking output shows the importance of; consistently arriving in dangerous positions, making good decisions in attack, and the collective style to get the best out of available players.

After years of failing to reach his potential, Vega, under Turco Mohamed, has improved his decisions and is playing in a more transitional team, allowing him to more frequently attack open spaces. If Vasco Aguirre can also make the most of Vega’s skill-set, he could be a key man for Mexico in the 2026 World Cup.

Thank you for reading, if you’d like to contact me regarding any questions, comments or to consult my services, you can contact me on:

• Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/tomh36.bsky.social

• Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-harrison-a682a2175/

• Twitter/X - https://x.com/tomh_36

También, se puede leer este artículo en Español- https://cambiodejuego.beehiiv.com/