Jornada 12 Review

Data from Fotmob, Wyscout and Golstats. Photo from ESPN.

Necaxa (0.65 xG) 2 - 1 (1.20 xG) León

Necaxa’s finishing quality gave them an early 2-0 lead, although Óscar Jiménez will be disappointed with the first goal. Considering Alfonso Blanco’s high performance level all season long, it’s seems Eduardo Berizzo’s rotation policy is no longer the right decision. Necaxa played completely differently to what we’ve become accustomed to, following the red card, and pretty much just defended for the whole of the second half. Necaxa did well to limit the amount of clear chances faced, just two created by León.

La Fiera did end the match with more xG created, but a total of 1.2 wasn’t enough against 10 players, and considering their need to find at least two goals. León have often been more dangerous when able to play direct this season, and their attack wasn’t that effective against a side that sat-back, like Necaxa during the second half. Their best moment of the match actually came against 11 men, with a through ball finding Jhonder Cádiz behind Necaxa’s high line, resulting in Alejandro Andrade fouling him and being sent-off.

Querétaro (1.02 xG) 1 - 0 (0.32 xG) Mazatlán

Rodrigo Bogarín’s goal was enough to earn a win for Querétaro, who totally gave the initiative to Mazatlán after taking the lead. Víctor Manuel Vucetich’s side ended the match with a huge 73% of the possession. Mazatlán had the chance to play against 10 men during the second half, but Mauro Laínez’s poor decision resulted in his second yellow card, just two minutes after Bogarín was shown red.

Once again, Mazatlán lacked a threat in attack, and the defeat is a major blow to their aims of avoiding last place in the coefficient table, and making play-in. However, whilst both teams are unlikely to quality, their seasons have at least been better than the worst sides in Liga MX.

Puebla (1.31 xG) 0 - 3 (2.03 xG) Toluca

Sometimes a head coach needs to keep confidence in their game plan, even if they’re a goal down. The defensive organization, discipline and coverage from La Franja in their 5-3-2 were very effective to limit Toluca’s attacking talent, and they ended the first half with just three shots created. Moreover, Puebla could threaten on the counter-attack, with Ricardo Marín missing the best chance of the first half in the 33rd minute.

But Jesús Gallardo’s goal, which Julio González, on his Puebla debut, should have saved, gave Toluca the advantage and Pablo Guede decided to make attacking subs for the second half. Making attacking chances is the obvious response at half-time if your team is losing, but Guede’s starting strategy was working, and with more space Toluca were able to threaten more. By the 62nd minute, Marcel Ruíz and Paulinho had gotten in-behind Puebla’s back-line, leading to a 3-0 scoreline, and all three points for Los Diablos Rojos.

Tigres UANL (1.66 xG) 3 - 0 (0.42 xG) Santos Laguna

A great week for Guido Pizarro, with three wins at home, although a comfortable win against Santos Laguna is to be expected. Santos, at least, have shown some positive signs at home, but their performance levels in away games is still a huge issue. Los Guerreros have a -9 goal difference in their away games this season, and their squad contains too many players that aren’t up to Liga MX level, but are still earning consistent minutes (Dájome, Tahiel Jiménez, Echeverría…).

Pizarro has maintained his 3-4-3, attacking frequently out wide with wing-back/wide attacker combinations. It was interesting to see that after Fernando Gorriarán’s return to fitness, Pizarro has continued to use Juan Brunetta in the central midfielder pair, with Gorriarán occupying the right attacking-midfield spot.

Juárez (0.94 xG) 1 - 1 (0.20 xG) Guadalajara

Sebastián Jurado’s error prevented Juárez from winning their sixth match this season. Martín Varini once again showed his capability to adjust defensive organization and limit his opponent’s creation. A week ago, San Luis found too much space centrally versus Juárez’s 4-4-2 mid-block, with Jairo Torres playing as one of the two midfielders, but Varini made improvements for this match.

Varini’s solution was to limit the amount of time that they spent in the 4-4-2 mid-block. Juárez showed much more aggressiveness to press in a higher block and when Chivas were able to progress, Los Bravos dropped in their back-five in the low block, something they’ve done all season.

The truth is that Chivas weren’t able to progress frequently. Juárez’s front-three in the high block limited space for Chivas’ three centre-backs to advance into. Juárez normally created their front-three by having right-winger Madson step forwards, pressing José Castillo, whilst Jairo Torres remained close to holding midfielder “Oso” González. Juárez normally didn’t try to recover the ball in the opposition half, but they effectively blocked forward passing lanes. Chivas ended-up passing the ball sideways between their centre-backs, and all three led the team in touches during this match.

Gerardo Espinoza hasn’t had much time to work with his squad, and therefore it’s understandable that Chivas weren’t able to adjust their build-up structure in-game to create problems for Juárez’s system. However, Espinoza must start to play his best players, not just the well-known names. Isaác Brizuela isn’t a viable option in 2025, and Miguel Gómez is probably their best right full-back/wing-back, given his performances with Tapatío. “Oso” González may not be the best holding midfielder if they want to build-up with more patience, given his limitations on the ball, whilst their best striker from last season, “Hormiga” González, is incredibly still stuck on the bench…

Cruz Azul (2.60 xG) 3 - 0 (0.43 xG) Atlético San Luis

A rather comfortable win for La Máquina, who created problems for San Luis’ defensive line throughout the first half. Cruz Azul ended the first period with a total of 2.1 xG created and seven shots from inside the box. It’s a positive sign for Vicente Sánchez to see his team recovering their ability to find success when trying to get in-behind a defense or find space in the box for crosses. However, San Luis, like Monterrey last week, played into Cruz Azul’s hands with a back-four in defense.

San Luis did improve a lot during the second half, pressing Cruz Azul’s build-up with more aggression, to exert better control over the match. It was a fairly effective strategy, and both sides ended the second half with a total of nine shots. However, San Luis couldn’t find a goal to spark an unlikely comeback.

Atlas (1.86 xG) 1 - 3 (1.56 xG) América

The xG from this match is a little mis-leading. Atlas started well, and created plenty of danger in the final minutes, but América had control of the bulk of the match, from around the 20th minute until after the third goal. Once again, América showed their attacking strength and the second goal was an excellent example of how to break-down a low block.

Las Águilas create a 5vs4 on the left, with right interior midfielder Érick Sánchez drifting over to the opposite side. Therefore, Sánchez has time when receiving a pass, and Brian Rodríguez is aware of a possible pass in-behind the Atlas defensive line, beginning his diagonal run from the blind-side of his marker.

Opposite, coordinated movements can create confusion in a defensive line. Álvaro Fidalgo and Rodrigo Aguirre make movements towards the ball, attracting their markers forwards, whilst Brian goes in the opposite direction, getting in-behind Leo Flores.

Brian receives an excellent pass from Sánchez, centre-backs Víctor Ríos and Matheus Dória can’t recover their positions after jumping, whilst Hugo Nervo isn’t quick enough to block the shot.

I had previously mentioned, in my jornada seven review, following América’s defeat to Necaxa, that Luis Malagón’s performance levels had dropped during 2024-25. Since then, Malagón’s responded with a string of impressive saves and performances. According to the post-shot xG model, compared with goals conceded, Malagón has let-in 3.18 goals less than would be expected from the average keeper since jornada seven. Given this run of form, Malagón now ranks second in the goals prevented metric this season.

Pumas UNAM (1.56 xG) 1 - 3 (1.83 xG) Monterrey

A crucial win for Martín Demichelis, who will now likely have the chance to finish the season with Rayados. Controversial refereeing decisions helped Monterrey, but there was evidence of Demichelis working on his side’s most significant defensive weakness. Last week, I analyzed how Monterrey need to improve in their low block, focusing on the roles of the three midfielders.

Rayados pressed at times, but maintained a compact mid-block for much of the game. “Corcho” Rodríguez was more aware of threats to his backline and was able to cover his centre-backs and create a back-five more consistently that during last week’s game versus Cruz Azul. Monterrey limited Pumas’ threat (0.77 xG if we take away the penalty) and protected against their attempted to create a free man via different wide rotations. With the ball, Demichelis’ team were dangerous on the counter and scored their second goal with a clever throw-in set-piece.

Pachuca (2.57 xG) 4 - 1 (0.10 xG) Tijuana

Cirilo Saucedo completely changing everything about Xolos’ game model during his first match as interim suggests that Juan Carlos Osorio’s project wasn’t part of any medium-to-long-term plan. Tijuana came out in possibly the most passive 5-4-1 I’ve seen this season, playing long and without any attempt to press in the opposition’s half. Pachuca could basically walk the ball into Tijuana’s half and begin to attack from there. Oussama Idrissi had too much time on the ball, and exploited his ball carrying and passing abilities. Saucedo tried to attack in the second half, but Xolos were totally unorganized and perhaps confused about what to do.

An error that teams can make when they decide to change a head coach is to believe that everything’s gone wrong and that everything needs to be changed. Xolos lost matches due to defensive issues, but there were some positive aspects of Osorio’s side. The attack and build-up improved significantly under the Colombian, with Tijuana ranking first and second in possession and final third entries respectively during 2024-25. There were key weaknesses to improve, but also strengths to maintain. It appears that Xolos have thrown away months of work and may have lost many advances that they achieve this season. It isn’t too much of a surprise that their results have been so disappointing in recent years.

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