Jornada 15 Review

Data from Fotmob, Sofascore, Wyscout and Golstats, photo from Récord.

Tijuana (0.89 xG) 2 - 1 (0.62 xG) Atlético San Luis

San Luis lost their chance to level Pumas’ points tally in tenth place with this defeat. Domenec Torrent’s totally dominated possession, with more than 70%, and a remarkable 92 final third entries against a very passive Xolos. Converting 92 final third entries into just 0.21 xG in open play is frankly, terrible. San Luis didn’t have the ability or the ideas in the final third to create problems.

Franck Boli’s absence all season has been part of their attacking issues, as the Ivorian striker had an average of 0.52 xG per game during Apertura 2024. On the other side of the pitch, Raúl Zúñiga has been one of the few positives of the Tijuana season. Zúñiga has eight non-penalty goals, an xG of 0.55 p90 and his xG per shot is extremely high, 0.24. Most of his shots come from highly dangerous situations, with just two of 71 attempts from outside the box.

Necaxa (0.52 xG) 3 - 5 (1.72 xG) Pachuca

Perhaps the game of the season, with the goal of the season. It looked like Necaxa were going to win another game courtesy of shots from distance, after Pavel Pérez’s extraordinary strike, but Elías Montiel also scored from outside the box, and Pachuca came back to win.

Los Tuzos scored twice after successful high pressing situations during this match, the first coming from a Necaxa throw-in, and the second from deep build-up. However, their PPDA was rather high (above 11). Los Rayos could frequently break the press and progress through the center of the pitch, but without creating many chances inside the box.

Pachuca, who have the lowest xG against this season according to Fotmob, are often effective at creating a compact low block when their high press doesn’t work, limiting the quality of their opponent’s chances. Guillermo Almada is known for his intense football, but the effectiveness of his side’s defense closer to their goal has also been extremely important during his Liga MX career. Teams that press more tend to allow fewer shots, but higher quality ones, and Pachuca are bucking this trend, with the third best xG per shot against this season.

Mazatlán (1.44 xG) 1 - 1 (0.63 xG) Guadalajara

I’m not sure what was worse in this game, the refereeing and use of VAR, or Chivas’ defensive block. Gerardo Espinoza had a difficult start as head coach in Guadalajara, with three consecutive clásicos and little time to train. But he’s now had an international break and full weeks to work on the training ground. His line-up was a surprise, especially the usage of Yael Padilla as an interior midfielder, and Mazatlán could easily progress the ball during the match, with little resistance from Chivas’ first and second lines.

Mazatlán often got the ball into the feet of Nicolás Benedetti, their most dangerous attacker, who had 78 touches in total, 15 more than any other player. Benedetti lacked support though, and as has been the case for most of the season, Los Cañoneros didn’t create that much, although their pressure eventually lead to a penalty and an equalizer. Érick Gutiérrez had to face that penalty after “Tala” Rangel received a second yellow card, but Mazatlán didn’t test Guty after the penalty was scored, and had to settle for a point.

An example of Mazatlán’s right-sided progression. Jefferson Intriago drops to the right to receive without pressure and easily by-pass the Chivas front two, who are fairly high and stay centrally. Yael Padilla steps-out to Intriago.

This creates space behind him, and Nicolás Benedetti also drops to receive without pressure. Mateo Chávez and centre-back Raúl Martínez (to the left of the screenshot) start to jump, but aren’t sure of their decisions, with Rodolfo Pizarro making a run in-behind.

Benedetti has time to find Pizarro’s run, in-behind Martínez. In each moment shown, Chivas’ players had doubts between jumping to press the ball or drop-back, create a compact block and cover the runs, and the distances to cover were fairly large given their lack of compactness. Espinoza will have to improve his side out of possession if they’re going to make play-in.

León (1.24 xG) 1 - 0 (0.66 xG) Puebla

León needed a rather fortunate deflection to come away with an important win, although La Fiera did create enough to win the match. León were patient against Puebla extremely passive 5-3-2 block, and managed to create 10 of their 14 shots from inside the box. Puebla had a few decent chances from set-pieces, and one counter-attack with Ricardo Marín, but Alfonso Blanco came up with an important stop in the 1vs1.

The performance didn’t seem to satisfy León’s fans too much, but this match isn’t representative of anything that they’ll face in liguilla. Puebla are one of the least ambitious teams that I’ve seen in Liga MX, and their matches often look like attack vs defense training sessions. It isn’t easy to create clear chances their low block, and León did enough to get the three points and move on.

Pumas (0.89 xG) 0 - 0 (0.09) Juárez

Zero shots on target in this match. Zero. Leo Suárez had the best chance of the game, exploiting an error in communication in the Juárez defense, and a poor clearance, but missed the 1vs1 with Sebastián Jurado quickly leaving his line.

Once again, this was an effective defensive display from Los Bravos, preventing Pumas from regularly moving the ball into the center of the Juárez half. As the heat map shows, a strength of Pumas’ attack has been their ball progression through the central zones, but Juárez often prevented this.

You can read more about Juárez’s defense in this article

Tigres UANL (0.92 xG) 2 - 1 (1.69 xG) Monterrey

An incredible end to the clásico regio, as Tigres scored twice to turn the match around in the final minutes. Rayados had been the better side, with their press particularly effective. Guido Pizarro’s side had never dropped below 88% pass success so far in Liga MX, but completed just 78% of their passes in the clásico. Rayados’ penalty came from a midfield recovery and transition, which showed the effectiveness of the 4-4-2 diamond system.

Gerardo Arteaga is able to jump and intercept the ball, with coverage from holding-midfielder Fidel Ambríz behind him.

Roberto de la Rosa was then able to receive the ball in transition, in space between the lines, with two passing options ahead of the ball.

And with Juan José Purata fixed to the ball, and with poor body orientation, there’s an easy pass into the run of Deossa.

Indiscipline cost Martín Demichelis’ side though. After red cards for talking back to the referee (Germán Berterame) and a dangerous high foot (Óliver Torres), Tigres had the extra man and exploited this with their second goal, as they created 1vs1 situations inside the box. A lack of discipline could also be said to be part of Sebastián Córdova’s goal, who found the gap in Rayados’ wall, as they ran out to try to block the shot.

Atlas (1.42 xG) 2 - 3 (1.46 xG) Toluca

Once against, Toluca’s efficiency in-front of goal won the match, but could their goalkeeper situation be an issue in liguilla? Pau López was dropped after letting-in 3.7 more goals than would be expected, according to Fotmob, and Luis García has come in. García’s never looked convincing in Liga MX, and his poor reading of the flight of the ball resulted in Eduardo Aguirre’s free-kick finding the back of the net.

Paulinho was the key for Tolyca, scoring a hat-trick to reach 25 goals in 2024-25, and it was a perfect hat-trick (left-foot, right-foot, header). His ability to finish with all body parts is a major strength, and Paulinho had out-scored his xG with both feet and his head. The Portuguese striker also showed his quality ball control, to set himself up to shoot with good body orientation. His first goal was a great example, turning in a single action to place the ball in the perfect position to finish with his left foot.

Paulinho finishing analysis in Liga MX 2024-25

América (1.00 xG) 0 - 0 (0.93 xG) Cruz Azul

Despite dominating possession and entering the final third 42 times in the second half, América couldn’t get revenge for the CONCACAF Champions League defeat. There was a single clear chance for both sides, with Kevin Mier and Luis Malagón making key saves in 1vs1s.

Just a single goal in three matches against Cruz Azul is a big disappointment for Las Águilas, and whilst poor finishing can explain part of their problems, América were also less efficient than usual in attacking creation. They managed the same number of box touches as their season average, but América shot from less dangerous positions, which is normally a key strength. If they meet in liguilla, André Jardine will have to find solutions to break-down a Cruz Azul side that are more pragmatic than their time under Martín Anselmi.

Santos Laguna (1.14 xG) 1 - 2 (0.74 xG) Querétaro

Another comeback win for an away team at Estadio TSM, and Querétaro stay in the fight for the last play-in spot, ahead of a big clash against Atlas mid-week. Santos had hope after a positive start, creating plenty of chances from the left-wing, and Ramiro Sordo actually got into the box to shoot (and score!), but once again the match ended in disappointment. Santos have lost over 70% of their matches in 2024-25, and will go into next season with a large deficit in the coefficient table. Removing 2022-23, Santos have an average of just 0.83 per match, 0.1 below last place right now, Mazatlán.

According to Golstats, Santos have let-in eight goals after through balls played in-behind their defensive line, and the first Querétaro goal once again showed the lack of cover and adjustments in “Tano” Ortíz’s defensive line. When José Abella jumps, and leaves his position, no one drops back to cover the zone. Querétaro get in-behind on the left, leading to Pablo Barrera finishing off a low cross. The 37-year-old then turned provider, Franco Russo making the most of poor marking from a free-kick, to win the match.

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