Nicolás Larcamón hasn't actually improved Necaxa

Data from Fotmob, Wyscout and Golstats, foto de RayoManía.

Necaxa are the team that have made the biggest improvement between Apertura and Clausura, right? Los Rayos have won more than twice as many points, after finishing last season with just 15, but reaching 31 points in this campaign. On the surface, it seems like an outstanding job from Nicolás Larcamón. But this isn’t quite the reality.

Necaxa have an xG difference of -0.08 per match this season, which is more or less equal to their xG difference in Apertura 2024, -0.10 per game. In fact, if we remove their final three matches (under an interim coach, with no possibility of qualifying for liguilla) and only analyze games under Eduardo Fentanes, their xG difference was 0, better than this season.

The graphic below shows moving averages of their xG and goal differences. Where the blue line is below the orange line, it shows that goal difference was better than xG difference in that moment, and vice versa.

The orange zone in recent weeks shows how Necaxa have out-performed their xG this season. Observe a peak in the blue line mid-way through the season, where Necaxa’s xG difference was above any moment under Fentanes, but Los Rayos have been on a negative trajectory during the second half of the season.

Ezequiel Unsaín has performed much better this season, finishing quality has helped, and also errors from opposition goalkeepers. Necaxa have scored ten times from outside the box, the highest number this season.

How unlikely is this difference in results versus Necaxa’s underlying numbers?

Quite rare, but not totally unexpected, or completely extreme cases when looking at the last five years of Liga MX. Necaxa sit outside of one standard deviation, and gaining nine more points than their expected points (xP) is unlikely, but there are teams that have out-performed their underlying numbers to a greater extent.

To create a team’s xP, a model takes into account the xG values of every shot in a match, and generates a percentage probability of all three results (to win, draw or lose). Afterwards, we can use these probabilities to calculate an average number of points won. For example, a 70% chance of winning (3×0.7) and 20% chance of drawing (1×0.2) = 2.3 xP. By adding up every match, we have a season total.

Less common is their drastic change between consecutive seasons, from under-performing to over-performing. The difference of 16 (from -7 to +9) completely explains their 16 point improvement across the two seasons.

Why does this matter?

It’s a valid question. Necaxa have benefitted from short-term variance, with individual factors and some luck (aspects out of their control like opposition goalkeeping), but Liga MX seasons are short. Larcamón’s side won ten games and finished the season in fifth place, going directly into liguilla.

In the context of a single tournament, the underlying numbers, of course, don’t actually matter. But inside clubs, it’s crucial that they’re analyzing these numbers, and taking them into account when making future decisions or creating expectations for upcoming seasons.

Necaxa shouldn’t expect to enjoy another season of variance going their way, and even if they keep hold of key players, direct qualification to liguilla is unlikely. It’s important that Los Rayos understand how they can improve those underlying numbers, in order to increase the possibility of reaching a similar points total next season.

Has Larcamón influenced this over-performance though? After all, he has an excellent historic record of qualifying for liguilla

From outside, it’s impossible to know how Larcamón has been working on the training ground, what his coaching staff have told the players, and any possible individual sessions. However, it’s unlikely that in under four months, Larcamón has dramatically improved his player’s finishing abilities, and Unsaín’s shot-stopping. Besides, those concepts tend to be quite volatile. Necaxa have also benefitted from poor performances from opposition goalkeepers, which is out of their control.

Statistically, we can analyze Larcamón historically to check whether or not his teams have always out-performed their underlying numbers. By looking at his time in León, it’s clear that this wasn’t the case. He did begin with better results than expected, but from his second season onwards, León under-performed their xG. Larcamón may even have got more time with La Fiera had results been closer to performance levels.

So, what has Larcamón actually done with Necaxa?

We’ve now seen that Larcamón hasn’t actually improved Necaxa’s performance levels, and that their underlying numbers probably hit the expectation, considering the talent in the squad. However, Larcamón has generated the same performance levels with a different style.

From being a passive, lower-block side, looking to exploit counter-attacks, Necaxa have become an aggressive team, using man-marking and a higher defensive line. I had predicted before the season that it would be a difficult adaptation process, considering Necaxa’s center-backs and the style that they’ve become used to playing in. Therefore, it isn’t surprising that defensive performances have been worse.

Necaxa’s PPDA, moving average. The graphic has been flipped so that a higher line shows more intensity in the press.

Necaxa xG analysis in 2024-25, under Larcamón the attack improved, but defense suffered.

However, Larcamón’s higher risk ideas have improved their attack a lot, and there are a couple of important benefits of Necaxa becoming a side with more open matches. Firstly, creating games with more chances for, and against, has helped Necaxa to make the most of the strengths in their squad, the quality of their attacking players. Los Rayos have a talent advantage in attack over much of the league, and exploited this by beating nine of the 13 teams below them.

Also, attacking players tend to be worth more in the transfer market, and a good number of goals and assists can boost a player’s profile, value, and possibility of being sold for a significant fee. An attacking style seems a wise choice for a team that have historically sold players for large fees, and these sales can help Necaxa reduce the economic gap between themselves and other Liga MX teams.

Larcamón does need to be careful of his player’s decision making if they’re going to maintain this attacking strength though. Their xG has dropped in recent weeks, with shots attempted from lower value positions. There’s an impact of Diber Cambindo not being available, but also his players have made worse final third decisions, with more shots from distance.

Overall, stylistic change can take time, and maintaining the same level of performances seems a pretty good achievement for Larcamón in his first season at Necaxa, and something they can build-on. The results, and having short-term variance go their way, has been a great bonus as well, but it’s not something that Necaxa can rely on. Smart coaching and recruitment is required if Necaxa are to improve their defense, and continue competing for liguilla in future seasons.

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