The Liguilla Preview: Part 1

Data from Fotmob, Sofascore, Golstats and FBRef.com, photo from AD Noticias.

As ever, the seventh and eighth placed teams have made it through the play-in, and this week liguilla starts. The best Liga MX sides will fight for the title, with the eight liguilla teams all ranking inside the top-nine for their xG difference. In two parts, I’ll analyze each team, starting with Wednesday’s matches…

Before focusing on each side specifically, this scatter plot shows plays styles in Clausura 2025, to provide a reference. The analysis uses a machine learning technique to reduce a large amount of metrics into just two numbers, displaying style in and out of possession.

The majority of liguilla teams show more patience on the ball, with Necaxa and León the only two clubs located on the left of the graph that have qualified.

Toluca | xG difference +0.64 per game

Tactical context

Los Diablos Rojos have maintained their general play style, more patience on the ball and less intensity out of possession. However, “Turco” Mohamed’s side can pick their moments to press with more intensity, and have added an ability to exploit counter-attacks. Toluca lead the league in shots following high recoveries, rank second for counter-attacks per game, and are also effective in built-up attacks. It’s this combination of threats that makes Toluca the best attacking side in Liga MX.

Mohamed has preferred a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 this season, with wingers that drift inside, overlapping full-backs, and Marcel Ruíz supporting attacks. However, Toluca have switched to a back three/five versus Mazatlán, Pumas and San Luis, matching-up their formations. Turco, who’s mentioned that his job is to win six liguilla matches, may adjust and adopt a more pragmatic system against stronger sides.

The graphic showing passes per zone displays Toluca’s commitment to build through the center of the pitch, influenced by their system and tactical ideas from previous coaches. Preventing central progression and passes between the lines will be important to reduce their attacking threat.

In the final third, Toluca cross infrequently from outside the box, and have shot more from inside the penalty area. Alexis Vega’s change in decision making has been key to Toluca generating this shot map, and to Vega developing his attacking output, as he’s reduced his shot attempts from distance.

Weakness to exploit

Toluca’s goalkeepers have been their main weakness this season. Turco has rotated between recent signing Pau López and Luis García, with both having a negative impact. López (-0.31 p90) and García (-0.28 p90) have conceded more goals than would be expected, according to the post-shot xG model. In a tight liguilla match, goalkeeper performances could be key.

América | xG difference +1.01 per game

Tactical context

There was a moment during the season where it seemed that no one could stop América’s attack, but after scoring just once across three games versus Cruz Azul, and losing 1-0 to Rayados with seven shots created, there are more doubts about their attack.

Under André Jardine, América haven’t shown the same intention to dominate territory like other strong Liga MX sides. América don’t press with great intensity, shown by their lack of opposition half recoveries, and don’t generate as many final third entries as some other sides. Their success has come from efficiency at creating clear chances inside the final third, and to effectively defend their own box.

The question is, can América still maintain this final third efficiency, without key players? Henry Martín is back after being injured, but has played just 404 minutes this season and is past his peak, whilst Brian Rodríguez won’t be available against Pachuca. Brian is particularly important for their left-sided attacks, which shows as a strength in América’s crossing graphic. Las Águilas have a large squad, but there’s no clear option to replace Brian’s role.

Jardine’s most important change during Clausura 2025 has been his favoured system. Looking for more scoring options, Jardine has switched to a 4-3-3, giving freedom to his interior midfielders. Álvaro Fidalgo has greatly benefitted from the tactical shift, arriving more frequently in the penalty area to score seven times. But in liguilla, will we see a more pragmatic idea, with América returning to a back-three/five?

Weakness to exploit

For their lack of intensity out of possession, it’s possible to control matches against América and limit their opportunities to attack. Maintaining a solid rest defense and an effective counter-press is key, to limit América’s counter-attacks, but Cruz Azul have shown that it’s possible to pin back their defensive line and keep them under pressure.

Pachuca | xG difference +0.56 per game

Tactical context

Pachuca have maintained their method of pressing opponents in a 4-2-4, with wingers moving inside and midfielders and full-backs jumping. However, this version of Pachuca don’t have the same intensity that we’ve normally seen from a Guillermo Almada team. Their opponents have completed, on average, one pass more before a Pachuca defensive action, compared to last season. Two teams have lower PPDA’s than Los Tuzos.

This Pachuca depend more on their individuals in attack, than a collective intensity, to score goals, and Solomon Rondón’s and Jhon Kennedy’s finishing abilities have been important this season. The left-wing is the focus of their attacks, giving more touches to Oussama Idrissi. The Morrocan winger is capable of breaking through defenses via ball carries and creative passes, and has built a good combination with full-back Bryan González, who can both underlap and overlap. However, Idrissi’s attacking output isn’t that high considering his responsibility, ranking in just percentile 50 for xG + xA, amongst attacking-midfielders.

The maps show the importance of Pachuca’s left-side in attack, and also the lack of opposition half recoveries. It’s possible that Los Tuzos will press with more intensity in liguilla, although the squad may contain too many older players, that lack the physicality to aid the press for 90 minutes.

Whilst the high block hasn’t been as effective, Pachuca low block is a strength. Their xG against, xG per shot against and cross success against rank amongst the best this season.

Weakness to exploit

Within the sides in liguilla, Pachuca are the most direct team in deep build-up, with poor ball retention as Almada looks to avoid more dangerous and high-risk moments. With a strong aerial game and a structure to win second balls, it’s possible to quickly win the ball off Pachuca and control the game.

Monterrey | xG difference +0.43 per game

Tactical context

This Rayados is a little better than results suggest. Martín Demichelis is a head coach that wants to control games and territory, and Rayados have done these things pretty well. They lead Clausura 2025 in PPDA, for their number of final third entries and their possession percentage.

Monterrey have various methods of progressing the ball, but have focused more on the right side this season, maximising the number of touches for Sergio Canales and Nelson Deossa. Experienced right-back Ricardo Chávez has also been an important addition.

Their problems have come in key moments and zones, inside the final third and defensive third. In attack, Rayados have a lower xG per shot (average chance quality) than América and Toluca, shooting more often from outside the box. Finishing ability has also been part of the issue, Germán Berterame scoring below his xG for example.

Defensively, both goalkeepers have struggled this season, although there are also problems in their structure. Demichelis normally plays with a single holding midfielder, and with their attacking-midfielders and wingers lacking intensity to recover their positions, the defensive midfielder has a lot of space to cover. Also, there’s been a lack of clarity over when the deepest midfielder should drop-back to cover the defensive line or create a back-five.

Demichelis has adjusted the formation a few times this season, 4-3-3 has been the preference, but a 4-4-2 diamond system is also an option. Canales’ role, following some time out of the side, will be interesting in liguilla.

Weakness to exploit

It can be difficult to break through their press at times, but a successful build-up can lead to dangerous opportunities being created. Teams can try to exploit the space in-front of their defensive line, attracting the holding midfielder to one side and playing to the other, or by trying to create superiorities against the back-line.

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