The Liguilla Preview: Part 2

Data from Fotmob, Sofascore, Golstats and FBRef.com, photo from ESPN.

As ever, the seventh and eighth placed teams have made it through the play-in, and this week liguilla starts. The best Liga MX sides will fight for the title, with the eight liguilla teams all ranking inside the top-nine for their xG difference. In the second part, I’ll look at the teams that are playing on Thursday.

Before focusing on each side specifically, this scatter plot shows plays styles in Clausura 2025, to provide a reference. The analysis uses a machine learning technique to reduce a large amount of metrics into just two numbers, displaying style in and out of possession.

The majority of liguilla teams show more patience on the ball, with Necaxa and León the only two clubs located on the left of the graph that have qualified.

Cruz Azul | xG difference +0.40

Tactical context

Martín Anselmi’s departure hasn’t led to drastic changes at Cruz Azul. By design or by chance, Vicente Sánchez, who stepped-up from the U23’s to the first team, has maintained many of the same tactical concepts.

Cruz Azul haven’t quite dominated their matches to the same extent. Their possession has dropped by 4% and their xG difference is worse, however, this team isn’t too different to Anselmi’s. The preferred system always contains a back-three with wing-backs, and their roles in attack continue to be vital. Carlos Rotondi is their main creator from the left, whilst Ignacio Rivero, who’s played mostly as a wing-back, was Cruz Azul’s top scorer this season.

Vicente Sánchez’s side are also still aggressive out of possession, with center-backs that push high up the pitch, like Erik Lira, more recoveries in the opposing half, plus they’re still committed to playing out from the back. Kevin Mier’s quality on the ball is a key strength in this part of the game, given his ability to keep the ball under pressure, and play through a press with accurate long passes.

Sánchez has rotated frequently in attack, and like Anselmi, can use two strikers or one striker with attacking-midfielders either side. It seems that he has more confidence in Ángel Sepúlveda right now, although Gabriel Fernández is their xG leader this season, but is currently injured. Behind the nine, new signings Mateusz Bogusz and Luka Romero haven’t had huge impacts, and have similar playing styles, often shooting from outside the box. Alexis Gutiérrez could be used to offer more creativity.

Weakness to exploit

Cruz Azul have two clear strengths in attack; playing vertically into space/1vs1 situations after drawing-in an opposition press, and creating a free man vs a back-four. Against teams that have used a back-five, and haven’t pressed so aggressively, La Máquina have struggled in attack. A back-five can prevent Cruz Azul from getting a man free, and can lead to many unsuccessful crosses from deep, and shots from distance that have little chance of troubling the score-line.

Tigres UANL | xG difference +0.42

Tactical context

After adjusting, little by little, to a more direct style, Tigres decided to go back to the ideas that consistently led to success under “Tuca” Ferretti. Captain Guido Pizarro was given the role of head coach, and his side immediately showed more patience on the ball. Tigres completed 85% of their passes, or more, in their first four Liga MX matches under Pizarro, but only generated above one xG on a single occasion.

Pizarro has changed the system as well, using a 3-4-3, and a 3-5-2 in the second-leg against Cruz Azul last week. Some player positions and roles have be altered to. Diego Laínez has been used as a left-wing-back, whilst Fernando Gorriarán has been part of the front-three at times, but Juan Brunetta’s role has been the most significant change.

Brunetta started the season as a number ten, and scored four times in their first six matches, but has been used as a deeper midfielder by Pizarro. Brunetta has the responsibility to control Tigres’ build-up and ball progression, with his tendency to play more passes towards the right impacting his side’s attacking focus.

Tigres build-up more from the left side, but attack down the right. Breaking through defenses down the right-wing will be important to find success in liguilla.

Weakness to exploit

Tigres are still adapting to the new play style, with a higher defensive line and an intention to dominate possession and territory. Cruz Azul and América have shown how to exploit situations when Tigres man-mark and leave 1vs1s in defense, with more direct attacks and vertical combinations.

Necaxa | xG difference -0.07

Tactical context

The only team to have made liguilla with a negative xG difference. By looking at results, it seems that Nicolás Larcamón has greatly improved Necaxa’s performance level, but the reality is that they’ve benefitted from short-term variance. Los Rayos won far fewer points than their expected points in Eduardo Fentanes’ final season (based on their xG), and have won far more in Larcamón’s first season.

Whilst their overall performances haven’t improved, their play style has changed greatly. Larcamón’s Necaxa is much more aggressive out of possession, maintaining a higher defensive line, and takes risks, with wingers playing as wing-backs at times. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Los Rayos have improved their attack under Larcamón, but that their defense has sufferred.

The system is a 3-4-3, and Necaxa have three key men that can threaten any opponent. Agustín Palavecino is a box-to-box midfielder who’s important with and without the ball, José Paradela is their creative number ten, whilst Diber Cambindo has the game intelligence and physicality to threaten in the box.

A worrying trend is the number of long shots that Necaxa have attempted in recent matches. Their players may be over-rating their chances of scoring from distance, after a few errors from opposition goalkeepers, but the absence of Cambindo may have had an impact. Also, their direct play could be more effective at creating clear chances against teams that defend with higher lines, like Tigres.

Weakness to exploit

Only three teams conceded more xG than Necaxa this season. Their aggressiveness can lead to the three center-backs being exposed, and they don’t have the types of center-backs to defend in larger spaces. Looking to add speed into the back-line, Larcamón has used Alejandro Andrade (midfielder) and Emilio Lara (full-back) as their outside center-backs in the last three matches. Both can be error prone.

León | xG difference +0.03

Tactical context

James Rodríguez is available in the first-leg against Cruz Azul, but could still be an important factor in liguilla. The Colombian has only scored once in open play, but has six assists and is the leader in shot-creating actions. His passing quality has been key, especially at set-pieces, and James also drops into midfield to receive more touches and help progress the ball (leader in progressive passes).

Given James’ quality, plus Stiven Mendoza’s pace, and the strength and back-to-goal ability of Jhonder Cádiz, León is a more effective side in direct attacks and transitions. It’s a style that may be more effective against the strongest Liga MX teams. León lost just once when facing the top-four sides this season, and a red card changed their game versus Cruz Azul.

One of León’s issues is their inability to control matches for the duration. For physical and/or mental reasons, La Fiera often drop their intensity and control of the possession when they take the lead, and struggle to press an opponent’s build-up. There’s a question mark over whether James and Andrés Guardado can play together, and with little intensity in the front-line, their opponents have often found space in-front of the defensive line.

León have required important contributions from both goalkeepers this season, whilst Stiven Barreiro continues to be one of the stand-out defenders in Mexico. Also, Eduardo Berizzo can help to solidify his last line of defense, but dropping a winger or midfielder and creating a back-five.

Berizzo has used a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation on paper in the majority of his matches, however, he opted to play without a striker in the regular season game against Cruz Azul. Will he try something similar in liguilla, without James?

Weakness to exploit

León’s opponents haven’t had too many problems in progressing the ball through the center of the pitch. There’s little intensity in the first line, and midfielders are required to cover large spaces. Also, Nicolás Fonseca can be over-aggressive, and jump to press when he should hold his position. Central progression had often led to shots on goal, and only the Santos and Tijuana goalkeepers have made more saves this season.

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